Pacific Leaders Back Stronger Early Warnings as Cascading Hazards Threaten Islands

WMO President Dr Abdulla Al Mandous called for Pacific leadership, regional ownership and international solidarity to turn the region’s ambitions into practical action.

Pacific communities facing overlapping threats from extreme weather, ocean hazards and geological events are at the heart of a new regional declaration calling for stronger national forecasting services and greater investment in early warnings. Ministers adopted the commitment at the Fourth Pacific Meteorological Ministers Meeting (PMMM-4) in Nuku'alofa, Tonga, on 16 September, placing reliable information and community preparedness at the centre of efforts to protect lives and livelihoods.

Hosted by the Government of Tonga in partnership with the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the gathering brought together ministers and senior representatives responsible for meteorology. Their shared message was that National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) need stronger political backing and sustained resources to deliver weather, climate and water information that people can use.

Early Warnings Must Reach Every Community

WMO President Dr Abdulla Al Mandous called for Pacific leadership, regional ownership and international solidarity to turn the region's ambitions into practical action. He urged countries to connect regional strategies with the WMO Strategic Plan 2028–2031 so that Pacific needs help shape global priorities, highlighting the potential of artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies to support services and the importance of expanding multi-hazard warning systems through the Early Warnings for All initiative.

The ministerial meeting followed the Eighth Pacific Meteorological Council, held in Nuku'alofa from 10 to 14 September, which identified priorities for the coming decade. Stronger early warning systems and climate services, better observations and data, and clearer delivery of forecasts to communities and decision-makers formed the core of those discussions, reflecting the need to make scientific information useful beyond the institutions that produce it.

Tonga's Experience Shows Why Hazards Cannot Be Treated Separately

Tonga's Prime Minister and newly appointed PMMM-4 Chair, Hon. Lord Fatafehi Fakafanua, urged governments, development partners, regional organisations and businesses to coordinate investment in sustainable climate and meteorological services. He said weather and climate events cost the Pacific an average of half a billion dollars annually, stressing that money invested in early warnings can generate returns many times greater than the original spending.

His call drew on the eruption of Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai, when a volcanic eruption, tsunami, ash cloud and communications disruption struck within hours. For islands located along the Ring of Fire and within the cyclone belt, the experience demonstrated how meteorological, hydrological, oceanic and geological hazards can interact and intensify one another, making integrated warning systems essential to preparedness.

Regional experts told ministers that El Niño was fully established and expected to peak between November 2026 and January 2027, with impacts likely to continue into 2027. The outlook added urgency to discussions about maintaining preparedness and regional coordination, with ministers considering what the evolving conditions could mean for Pacific countries.

A Ten-Year Plan Needs Lasting Investment

Building on a decade of progress, the proposed Pacific Islands Meteorological Strategy 2027–2036 would provide a common framework for improving weather, climate and water services and guiding investment and partnerships. It recognises that capable national services underpin regional resilience, supported by cooperation that allows countries to share expertise and resources and gain better access to technology, data and scientific knowledge.

The Siu-í-Álaimoana-Ki-Likutapu Declaration adopted at the meeting records ministers' collective political commitment to strengthening NMHSs and expanding multi-hazard early warning systems across the Pacific. Turning that commitment into everyday protection now depends on investment, stronger national institutions and regional cooperation that delivers timely, trusted and useful information to communities, helping people understand the risks they face and prepare before hazards strike.