From Productivity Boom to Job Shifts: How AI Could Transform Poland by 2035

A World Bank report finds that AI could raise Poland’s GDP by up to 12.1% by 2035, helping offset demographic decline and boost productivity, particularly in digital, financial, and knowledge-intensive sectors. However, realizing these gains will depend on rapid AI adoption, investment in skills and innovation, and strong labor-market policies to help workers transition into new roles.

Artificial intelligence (AI) could become one of the biggest drivers of Poland's economic growth over the next decade, adding more than 10% to the country's GDP by 2035 if supported by the right policies, investments, and workforce reforms. This is the key finding of a new World Bank Group report, prepared in collaboration with the Polish Economic Institute (PIE), the Institute for Structural Research (IBS), the Łukasiewicz Research Network, the International Labour Organization (ILO), Statistics Poland (GUS), and other national institutions.

The report comes at a crucial moment for Poland. After three decades of rapid economic growth and convergence with Western Europe, the country faces slowing productivity growth, an aging population, and increasing labor shortages. Poland's workforce is projected to shrink by around 1.5 million people by 2035, creating new pressure on businesses and public services. Against this backdrop, AI is presented as a powerful tool to sustain growth, improve productivity, and strengthen competitiveness.

AI Could Deliver a Major Growth Dividend

The World Bank estimates that Poland's GDP could be between 1.3% and 12.1% higher by 2035 compared to a scenario where AI adoption remains at current levels. The strongest results come from a scenario in which firms rapidly adopt AI, workers successfully transition into new jobs, and investment flows into digital technologies and innovation.

The report assumes that AI adoption among firms rises from 8.4% today to nearly 45% by 2035. Even within the next three years, economic gains of 2–3% could begin to emerge. Productivity improvements account for most of these benefits. AI enables firms to automate repetitive tasks, improve decision-making, reduce operational costs, and increase worker productivity.

The sectors expected to gain the most include computer programming, information services, finance, professional services, and business services. Output in computer programming and consultancy services could increase by more than 25% above baseline projections by 2035. Construction is also expected to benefit significantly due to increased investment and demand for infrastructure linked to economic expansion.

For policymakers, the report highlights the importance of acting early. Countries that invest in AI skills, digital infrastructure, and innovation ecosystems sooner are likely to attract more investment and enjoy stronger long-term productivity gains than those that delay adoption.

Jobs Will Change More Than They Disappear

While fears about AI-driven unemployment continue to dominate public debate, the report suggests that the bigger challenge will be managing labor market transitions rather than dealing with mass job losses.

AI is expected to reduce demand for occupations heavily dependent on routine cognitive tasks. Clerical jobs face the highest risk, with employment in some knowledge-intensive sectors projected to decline by more than 40%. Professionals and technicians performing highly standardized tasks may also experience significant disruption.

At the same time, demand is expected to rise for occupations involving physical work, practical problem-solving, interpersonal interaction, and skilled trades. Construction workers, healthcare staff, technicians, sales professionals, and public-sector employees are among those likely to benefit from expanding opportunities.

The study finds that labor mobility is the decisive factor. Under a high-mobility scenario, where workers can retrain and move into growing sectors, overall employment remains largely stable. Under a low-mobility scenario, Poland could face employment shortfalls of more than 340,000 jobs by 2035.

The message for governments is clear: reskilling, lifelong learning, vocational education, and workforce transition programs must become central pillars of national AI strategies.

What This Means for Development Partners and Investors

The findings carry important implications for international development organizations, donor agencies, and multilateral institutions. AI is no longer just a technology issue; it is increasingly a development issue. Investments in digital infrastructure, workforce skills, innovation systems, and institutional capacity can directly influence economic growth and social inclusion.

Despite strong foundations, Poland still faces several gaps. Only 50.4% of individuals possess digital skills compared with the EU average of 60.4%. Research and development spending remains below the EU average, while venture capital investment is significantly lower than in leading innovation economies.

Development partners can play an important role by supporting digital transformation programs, strengthening innovation ecosystems, financing skills initiatives, and helping governments design effective AI adoption strategies. Such investments can generate long-term benefits by improving productivity, competitiveness, and labor market resilience.

For investors, the report highlights significant opportunities in AI infrastructure, digital services, advanced manufacturing, data centers, cloud computing, and technology-enabled business services. Poland already hosts more than 607,000 IT specialists, the largest talent pool in Central and Eastern Europe, making it an attractive destination for AI-related investments.

The Next Decade Will Be Decisive

The report concludes that Poland has many of the ingredients needed to become one of Europe's leading AI adopters. The country benefits from strong digital service industries, substantial foreign investment, improving connectivity, and ambitious government targets. However, success is far from guaranteed.

The greatest risk is not technological change itself but failing to prepare workers, institutions, and businesses for that change. Without investment in skills, innovation, and labor market flexibility, the benefits of AI could become concentrated among a small number of firms and capital owners, increasing inequality and limiting broader economic gains.

To maximize the AI dividend, the report recommends accelerating business adoption of AI, expanding digital and AI-related skills, attracting more domestic and foreign investment, strengthening research and innovation systems, and improving labor market adaptability. For governments, development partners, and private-sector leaders alike, the next decade represents a narrow but significant window of opportunity. Countries that move quickly to build AI-ready economies are likely to emerge as the major winners of the global technological transition, while those that hesitate risk falling behind in an increasingly digital and competitive world.