Swiss government slightly raises 2026 economic growth forecast

Bern agreed with Washington in November on a preliminary deal to lower U.S. tariffs to 15% from 39%. The government's panel of economic experts now expects Swiss growth of 1.1% in 2026, up from the 0.9% rate it forecast in October.

The Swiss government raised its 2026 economic growth forecast on Monday, saying the agreement to lower U.S. import tariffs on its products meant its exporters would be less hard hit by trade barriers. Bern agreed with Washington in November on a preliminary deal to lower U.S. tariffs to 15% from 39%.

The government's panel of economic experts now expects Swiss growth of 1.1% in 2026, up from the 0.9% rate it forecast in October. "The reduction in U.S. tariffs on Swiss products has strengthened the outlook and planning certainty for directly affected sectors and companies," the government said.

Still, the figure represented a downturn from the 1.4% growth rate forecast for 2025. In its first outlook for 2027, the government's expert group said it expected Swiss economic growth to accelerate to 1.7%.

All the figures were adjusted for the impact of sporting events and were based on the assumption that international tariffs would remain at the current levels. Still, uncertainties remained high, the government said.

"Global uncertainty surrounding trade and economic policy remains elevated, and the Swiss franc continues to be highly valued," it said. Foreign trade is expected to provide a positive, albeit moderate, stimulus in the coming year, with goods exports in the coming quarters forecast to exceed October expectations.

Domestic demand, however, will remain the main driver of growth, the government said.

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