China's Record Trade Surplus: A Double-Edged Sword

In 2025, China's trade surplus soared to approximately USD 1.2 trillion, driven by rising exports, despite geopolitical tensions. The year saw a 20% increase from 2024's surplus. Economists predict exports will bolster China's economy, but there are concerns about potential impacts on global markets.

China's trade surplus reached an unprecedented USD 1.2 trillion in 2025, with December's exports exceeding forecasts, according to government announcements on Wednesday.

The customs data indicated a 20% growth in the surplus compared to the previous year, with exports hitting USD 3.77 trillion against imports of USD 2.58 trillion. December exports saw a rise of 6.6%, surprising economists, and outpacing November's 5.9% increase, while imports grew by 5.7% year-on-year, up from November's 1.9%.

Economists, including Jacqueline Rong from BNP Paribas, anticipate exports to continue fueling China's economic growth into 2026, despite ongoing trade tensions and a decline in exports to the US. However, concerns mount over a possible influx of cheap imports affecting local industries globally. The International Monetary Fund has urged China to rectify economic disparities and enhance domestic consumption and investment.