East Africa Advances Climate Resilience with New Urban Flash Flood Forecasting System

As climate change intensifies rainfall variability and extreme weather events, urban flash floods are becoming a growing threat across East Africa’s rapidly expanding cities.

Climate experts and meteorological agencies from across East Africa have taken a major step toward strengthening disaster preparedness, as a regional workshop on Urban Flash Flood Forecasting Systems (UFFFS) concluded in Kampala.

Held from 23–25 March 2026, the three-day workshop is part of the Water at the Heart of Climate Action (WHCA) project—an initiative funded by the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs and supported by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to enhance climate resilience in vulnerable regions.

Tackling Rising Urban Flood Risks

As climate change intensifies rainfall variability and extreme weather events, urban flash floods are becoming a growing threat across East Africa’s rapidly expanding cities.

The UFFFS initiative aims to address this challenge by equipping countries with advanced tools to:

• Forecast flash floods in urban areas

• Deliver impact-based early warnings

• Support timely disaster response and risk reduction

The system integrates satellite observations with advanced forecasting techniques, including the PySTEPS nowcasting algorithm, enabling near real-time predictions of rainfall and flood risks.

Regional Collaboration Across Five Countries

The WHCA project is being implemented in:

• Ethiopia

• Rwanda

• South Sudan

• Sudan

• Uganda

More than 20 experts from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) across these countries participated in the Kampala workshop, sharing experiences and strengthening regional coordination.

From Forecasting to Impact-Based Warnings

A key innovation of the UFFFS is its focus on impact-based forecasting, moving beyond predicting rainfall to assessing how floods will affect:

• Infrastructure

• Communities

• Critical services

Once operational, the system will be integrated into the East Africa Hazard Watch platform, enhancing regional monitoring and data sharing.

Hands-On Training and Technology Transfer

The workshop, led by WMO partners HKV and Deltares, provided participants with:

• Practical training using flood modelling and nowcasting tools

• Exposure to forecasting systems used in other regions

• Hands-on exercises to simulate real-world flood scenarios

Participants also discussed the need for local infrastructure data, such as drainage systems and urban layouts, which are essential for accurate forecasting.

Building Early Warning Systems for All

The initiative is part of the global Early Warnings for All (EW4All) programme, which aims to ensure that every person on Earth is protected by early warning systems.

Through WHCA, WMO is supporting countries to:

• Strengthen weather observation and monitoring systems

• Improve forecasting and risk analysis

• Develop multi-hazard early warning systems

This includes the creation of multi-hydrological models for both riverine and urban flood forecasting.

Pilot Cities at the Forefront

The UFFFS will be rolled out in five pilot cities:

• Addis Ababa

• Juba

• Kampala

• Kigali

• Khartoum

These cities, which face increasing flood risks due to urbanisation and climate pressures, will serve as testing grounds for scaling the system across the region.

A Critical Step Toward Climate Adaptation

Experts say the initiative represents a shift toward data-driven, proactive disaster management, enabling governments to move from reactive response to anticipatory action.

With floods among the most frequent and damaging natural hazards in Africa, improved forecasting systems could:

• Save lives

• Reduce economic losses

• Strengthen urban resilience

As climate risks continue to rise, regional cooperation and technology-driven solutions like UFFFS are expected to play a crucial role in safeguarding communities across East Africa.