India's Kharif Sowing Gains Amid Widening Rainfall Deficit

Despite a widening cumulative rainfall deficit in India, Kharif sowing is progressing well, closing last year's gap. Above-normal rains forecast for East and Central India offer hope for improved conditions. Major crops, including rice and oilseeds, show reduced shortfalls, even as rainfall challenges persist.

India's Kharif sowing season is showing resilience as it gains momentum despite a growing cumulative rainfall deficit over the past three weeks. According to a Dolat Capital report, the deficit increased from 15% on July 8 to 23.8% by July 19. However, forecasts predict above-normal rainfall in East and Central India in the coming weeks, offering a glimmer of hope for farmers.

The report highlights that as of July 17, total Kharif acreage reached 658.19 lakh hectares, reflecting a significant reduction in the shortfall compared to the same period last year. Although the gap still stands at 42.28 lakh hectares, it has narrowed from the 101.4 lakh hectares shortfall recorded the previous week, thanks to improvements in soil moisture conditions.

Rice cultivation has significantly closed in on last year's pace, while pulses, coarse cereals, oilseeds, and cotton have also recorded improved acreage figures. Notably, pulses acreage rose to 69.23 lakh hectares, driven by increased sowing of Arhar and Urdbean, although it remains below last year's levels. Meanwhile, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) anticipates near-normal to above-normal rainfall in East and Central India due to a developing cyclonic circulation over the north Bay of Bengal, albeit with the persistence of El Nino conditions that may affect the overall monsoon season.