Tensions in the Gulf: Shipping Traffic and Oil Price Forecasts Affected

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed following Iranian threats of retaliation for potential U.S. attacks. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has raised oil price forecasts, anticipating continued Middle Eastern shipping disruptions. An increase in commodity vessel traffic is noted at the Bab el-Mandeb strait.

Shipping traffic through the crucial Strait of Hormuz slowed at the start of this week, as Iran issued a warning of retaliation against any new U.S. attacks. Data from Kpler revealed that the number of vessels passing through the strait on Monday was significantly reduced from the previous day.

Iran's rhetoric has emphasized the vulnerability of energy infrastructure across the Gulf, including American oil and gas interests. In response, Goldman Sachs has adjusted its Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil price forecasts for December 2026 and 2027, anticipating that shipping disruptions could persist over an extended period.

Meanwhile, the Bab el-Mandeb strait has experienced an uptick in activity, with 29 commodity vessels crossing on Monday, compared to 17 the previous day. It is noted that some vessels may be operating with transponders off, which could affect accurate counting.