AI Is Reshaping Global Trade. Can Every Country Share the Gains?

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said more than 600 people had registered to attend in person, with roughly the same number signing up online.

Artificial intelligence is changing how goods move across borders, businesses make decisions and countries compete, creating opportunities that reach far beyond the technology industry. Hundreds of participants gathered at the World Trade Organization on 14 September for World Trade & Tech Day to explore what those changes could mean for jobs, investment and economic growth. Under the theme 'AI and Trade: Turning Potential into Progress,' government officials, researchers and business leaders discussed how to turn technological advances into benefits that reach economies of every size.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said more than 600 people had registered to attend in person, with roughly the same number signing up online. She highlighted AI's potential to lower trade costs and improve productivity, particularly in services, pointing to figures showing that global goods trade volume grew by 4.6% last year, with AI-related products accounting for an estimated 42% of that increase.

The AI Boom Depends on Cross-Border Trade

Behind every AI service sits a network of materials, components, infrastructure and expertise spread across countries. Okonjo-Iweala described how semiconductors can be designed in one country, manufactured in another, tested elsewhere and assembled into servers before reaching data centres around the world. Her message, "No trade, no compute," captured how closely AI development depends on functioning international supply chains, from critical minerals to cross-border data flows.

Existing WTO agreements support much of this activity by removing tariffs on many technology products, underpinning services trade, addressing technical barriers and protecting intellectual property. These frameworks were developed before today's AI systems and large language models, raising questions about how governments can coordinate newer regulations across borders. The discussions focused on creating greater policy coherence so businesses can innovate within a more predictable trading environment.

Smaller Economies See Room to Compete

For smaller countries, AI offers possibilities for expanding services exports, improving productivity and attracting investment without needing the industrial scale of larger economies. Singapore's Josephine Teo urged governments to help people and businesses access these opportunities, describing a stable trading environment as essential to spreading innovation. Iceland's Hanna Katrín Friðriksson highlighted the importance of an AI strategy that reflects society's needs and opportunities, including ethical and security considerations.

El Salvador's economy minister, María Luisa Hayem, explained that AI already supports the country's trade negotiations by assessing possible effects on different sectors, demonstrating how the technology can strengthen policymaking as well as business operations. She called for balanced regulation, reliable digital connectivity and continued investment in skills. Jamaica's Aubyn Hill described opportunities to attract investment and expand higher-value services and logistics, connecting the country's AI ambitions with efforts to develop its workforce.

From Supply Chains to Coffee Farms

Sakana AI co-founder Ren Ito said autonomous systems are beginning to manage supply chains and handle procurement, compliance and logistics tasks previously carried out by teams of people. He proposed an 'AI Sovereignty Index' to help countries understand how AI is spreading and identify vulnerabilities, including dependence on a single model. NIO founder William Li explored AI's growing role in vehicles and automotive supply chains, stressing the value of standards, testing and international regulatory cooperation.

Five additional policy sessions examined subjects including developing countries' participation in AI value chains and the role of AI and intellectual property in coffee production. Twelve organizations, including customs agencies, presented practical case studies, with examples available through a new WTO database of trade-related AI applications. Closing the event, WTO Deputy Director-General Johanna Hill stressed that the choices made today will carry lasting consequences for inclusion, development and economic opportunity, placing responsibility on governments and businesses to shape how widely the gains are shared.