Uncertainty Looms Over Ukraine's Wheat Exports Amid EU Policy Changes

Ukraine's wheat exports may decline in 2025/26 due to potential EU policy changes, unclear harvest prospects, and better conditions in EU importing countries. Analysts predict a drop from 16.2 million tons to 15 million tons. EU trade measures implemented after Russia's invasion are set to expire soon, affecting trade dynamics.

Ukraine's wheat exports are projected to decline in the 2025/26 season, influenced by anticipated changes in the European Union's import policies, uncertain harvest outcomes, and improved crop conditions in European importing nations, according to analyst ASAP Agri.

The consultancy forecasts a reduction to about 15 million metric tons from 16.2 million in the 2024/25 season. Although the Ukrainian government has not released official predictions for the 2025 crop, the agriculture ministry plans to provide assessments by early June.

Traditionally a supplier for southern Europe, Ukraine faces an unclear export outlook with EU trade policies set to change. The EU had previously waived duties and quotas on Ukrainian agriculture following Russia's invasion, but those measures expire on June 5. As European buyers hold off on contracts, the Middle East and Southeast Asia take precedence.