IEA Adjusts 2026 Oil Demand and Supply Forecasts Amid Global Changes

The International Energy Agency has revised its 2026 global oil demand and supply forecasts. It predicts demand growth will outstrip supply, leading to a narrower market surplus. Restrictions on Russia and Venezuela are expected to impact supply, while demand rises due to a better economic outlook and reduced tariff concerns.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has updated its 2026 forecasts for global oil demand and supply, projecting a tighter market ahead. The adjustment comes as supply growth is expected to slow due to geopolitical factors, while demand strengthens amid a more favorable economic environment.

According to the Paris-based agency, global oil supply is now anticipated to outpace demand by 3.84 million barrels per day, an adjustment from the previous estimate of a 4.09 million barrels per day surplus. The revised predictions reflect the agency's view of an improving macroeconomic outlook and diminished concerns over tariffs.

However, the IEA expects supply growth to face challenges, particularly over the 2025-2026 period, due to sanctions impacting Russian and Venezuelan exports. These geopolitical tensions and economic dynamics are shaping future forecasts in the oil market.

(With inputs from agencies.)