5 Million Jobs or Deeper Food Insecurity: The Choice Facing MENA, Afghanistan and Pakistan

A new World Bank Group report estimates that the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan region could create around 5 million new jobs by 2050 through stronger agriculture and food systems. The findings matter because food demand is expected to rise sharply, while food insecurity, unaffordable nutritious diets, water pressure and youth employment challenges are converging across the region.

The Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan region could create around 5 million new jobs by 2050 if it invests more ambitiously in agriculture and food systems, according to a new World Bank Group report titled Building Food Security, Creating Jobs. The report links food security, rural development and employment creation, arguing that investment and business climate reforms could strengthen food systems while opening new opportunities, particularly for young people.

Food demand across the region is expected to increase by 67% by 2050, placing additional strain on systems already affected by conflict, high prices, poor nutrition and water stress. The World Bank identifies conflict as the leading cause of severe hunger, while high food prices and poor nutrition continue to affect communities across the region.

A Food Crisis Is Becoming a Jobs Test

According to the World Bank Group report, 18% of the region's population now faces some level of food insecurity, the highest level recorded so far. At the same time, 42% of people cannot afford a nutritious diet, including many in middle-income countries. These figures show that the challenge is not only about producing more food. It is also about whether people can afford healthy diets, whether supply chains function efficiently, whether rural economies generate enough income, and whether governments can manage pressures from conflict and food prices.

When food becomes unaffordable or unreliable, the effects can spread into health, education, household incomes, public spending and social stability.

If food systems are strengthened, the region could create millions of new jobs by 2050.However, that potential depends on whether investment reaches the right parts of the food economy, from irrigation and innovation to processing, transport, logistics and services.

Invest Now or Stretch Fragile Systems

The report estimates that investing an additional US$12 billion each year in water-efficient irrigation, agricultural innovation and supportive policy reforms could more than double fruit and vegetable production and increase cereal yields by 72% by 2050, highlighting both the scale of the opportunity and the cost of delay.

Food demand is projected to rise sharply, but many countries in the region already face pressure on water, land, food prices and rural livelihoods. Without stronger systems, rising demand could deepen import dependence, affordability problems and nutrition gaps.

Water-efficient irrigation is especially important because the report links higher agricultural output with reduced pressure on groundwater. Expanding production without improving water use could worsen long-term resource stress, but better irrigation and agricultural innovation could allow countries to raise productivity while managing natural resources more carefully.

The emphasis on policy reform is also significant. Investment alone may not be enough if farmers, agribusinesses and food suppliers face weak logistics, inefficient markets, poor access to finance or limited incentives to modernise. Business climate reforms could help create the conditions for private investment, value-chain expansion and better market access.

Still, the US$12 billion annual investment figure should be read as a scenario, not a guaranteed outcome. The jobs and production gains depend on implementation, financing, governance and the ability of countries to translate reforms into practical improvements on the ground.

The Future of Food Work Is Moving Beyond the Farm

The agrifood sector already employs about 63 million people across the region, representing nearly three in every ten workers, but the structure of employment is changing. Traditional farming jobs are gradually declining, while work in food processing, transport, logistics and food services is expanding at twice the global average. This shift shows that the future of agrifood employment may not lie only in fields and farms. It may increasingly depend on the wider system that stores, processes, moves, sells and serves food.

For young people, this could open new pathways into work. Jobs in logistics, cold chains, food services, processing and distribution may offer opportunities beyond conventional farming, especially if supported by skills, infrastructure, finance and market reforms.

Farmers could also benefit if stronger food systems connect them to better markets and higher-value supply chains. According to World Bank Regional Director for the Planet Department Mesky Bhrane, coordinated investments and reforms can build more resilient agriculture, improve food security and connect millions of farmers with new economic opportunities through the World Bank Group's AgriConnect initiative.

However, the transition may also create tensions. As traditional farming employment declines, workers may need support to move into new roles. Smaller farmers may struggle to benefit from agrifood growth if they lack access to finance, technology, transport links or bargaining power. The employment potential will depend on whether the new jobs are accessible, productive and widely distributed.

The Real Test Is Delivery, Not Projections

The World Bank Group report presents food systems as a major development opportunity, but the path forward is complex. More investment could raise production, strengthen food security and create jobs. Yet the region's challenges are not only technical or financial. Conflict, food prices, water stress, nutrition gaps and uneven access to opportunity all shape what is possible.

Reducing food waste and encouraging healthier food consumption are also part of the report's recommendations. These priorities show that food security cannot be measured only by output. A stronger food system must also improve how food is used, distributed, priced and consumed.

Governments will play a key role in turning the report's recommendations into action. They will need to decide how to finance irrigation, support agricultural innovation, improve logistics, reduce waste and create a business environment that allows agrifood industries to grow. Development partners and private investors may also be important, particularly in areas such as infrastructure, processing, storage and transport.

By 2050, the region will need food systems that are more productive, more water-efficient, more resilient and better able to support livelihoods. The promise of 5 million new jobs is significant, but it is conditional. What happens next will depend on whether countries treat food security as a long-term economic strategy, not only an emergency response.