UN Warns South Sudan Elections Could Deepen Conflict Without Safeguards

Commission Chair Yasmin Sooka stressed that the UN body supports the right of South Sudanese people to elect their representatives freely and peacefully.

South Sudan is approaching what could become the first national election since it gained independence 15 years ago, giving millions of citizens their first opportunity to choose a government through the ballot box. That historic moment is arriving amid renewed fighting, political exclusion and weakened institutions, prompting the UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan to warn that an election held without basic security and democratic protections could deepen the country's divisions instead of helping people resolve them peacefully.

In a new advisory titled At the Brink: Preventing Atrocity Crimes and Safeguarding South Sudan's Transition, the Commission said several warning signs associated with atrocity crimes are appearing at the same time. Armed conflict has returned to parts of the country, political dialogue has narrowed, civic space has come under pressure and accountability for serious abuses remains weak, creating an environment in which an already tense electoral contest could become another source of violence.

First Election Carries Enormous Expectations

For South Sudanese citizens who have lived through years of conflict, displacement, political uncertainty and economic hardship, an election represents far more than another political event. It could provide a peaceful opportunity to influence the country's direction and finally participate in a national vote as citizens of an independent South Sudan, an aspiration the Commission said must be protected rather than used to justify an election under unsafe conditions.

Commission Chair Yasmin Sooka stressed that the UN body supports the right of South Sudanese people to elect their representatives freely and peacefully. The concern centres on whether voters, opposition parties and communities will be able to exercise those rights without intimidation, armed violence or fear of retaliation.

The Commission argues that democratic elections require more than polling stations and a voting date. Citizens need to be able to organise, campaign, debate and vote safely, while opposition parties must be able to participate freely and courts and electoral institutions need enough independence to settle disputes fairly.

Peace Deal Commitments Remain Unfinished

Many of those protections were supposed to emerge from the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan, known as the R-ARCSS, which established commitments covering security reform, accountability, constitutional changes and preparations for elections.

Implementation remains incomplete. According to the government's latest assessment cited by the Commission, 46.4 per cent of the agreement's provisions are still outstanding, while the unification of national forces has not been completed and armed conflict has resumed in parts of the country.

Commissioner Barney Afako warned that the peace agreement was designed to remove weapons from political competition and create institutions capable of supporting stability. Instead, armed actors are again becoming part of the political landscape while mechanisms intended to keep competition peaceful have weakened or been suspended.

The Commission sees a particularly dangerous combination in renewed conflict, entrenched impunity, corruption, exclusionary governance, inflammatory rhetoric and shrinking civic space. Each problem carries risks of its own, but their convergence ahead of an election could make political disputes much harder to contain.

Credible Vote Needs Security and Political Freedom

The UN body has outlined several conditions it believes are essential for elections that citizens can trust. These include a monitored cessation of hostilities, unified national security forces operating under non-partisan command, restored civic and political freedoms, independent electoral institutions and impartial mechanisms for resolving election disputes.

Participation also needs to extend beyond established political elites. Women, young people, persons with disabilities, internally displaced people and refugees need meaningful opportunities to participate, while authorities must address hate speech and incitement that could turn political disagreements into communal violence.

Commissioner Carlos Castresana Fernández said holding an election according to a timetable does not automatically make it credible. Public confidence depends on whether citizens can vote without fear, political rivals can compete freely, courts can deal independently with disputes and state institutions can prevent abuses of power.

UN Calls for Dialogue Before Window Closes

The Commission is calling on the government and all parties to the R-ARCSS to immediately cease hostilities, restore transitional security arrangements and stop mobilising armed actors. It also wants an inclusive political dialogue involving Dr Riek Machar's SPLM-IO faction, holdout groups, civil society organisations, women and youth representatives.

The advisory calls for detained opposition leaders, including Machar, to be released unless they are promptly brought before an independent and impartial court through proceedings meeting international human rights and due process standards.

Regional and international partners also have a role to play. The Commission has urged the African Union, IGAD, the United Nations and other partners to intensify preventive diplomacy and help South Sudan's political actors rebuild consensus around an inclusive process.

South Sudan's election could still become the democratic milestone many citizens have waited years to experience. The Commission's warning is that ballots alone cannot carry that burden when guns remain in political life, institutions are fragile and large sections of society feel excluded. The country still has time to strengthen the protections needed for peaceful political competition, but the opportunity to prevent another cycle of widespread violence is becoming increasingly narrow.