Sustainable Cities in Central Asia: Building a Resilient and Low-Carbon Urban Future

The Reimagining Central Asian Cities study highlights sustainable urban strategies for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, focusing on climate resilience, compact growth, and low-carbon development. It advocates for green infrastructure, efficient energy use, and improved urban mobility to enhance livability while reducing environmental risks.

The Reimagining Central Asian Cities for a Resilient and Low-Carbon Future study, conducted by the World Bank in collaboration with the City Resilience Program (CRP), the Climate Support Facility (CSF), and the Sustainable Urban and Regional Development (SURGE) multi-donor trust fund, presents a comprehensive analysis of urbanization trends, climate vulnerabilities, and sustainability strategies in Central Asia. Covering Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, the study evaluates 48 cities while conducting detailed assessments of five key urban centers: Almaty, Bishkek, Dushanbe, Namangan, and Shakhrisabz. The objective is to create a blueprint for urban policies and investments that promote climate resilience, sustainability, and a significant reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Urbanization on the Rise, but at What Cost?

Central Asia is undergoing rapid urbanization, with cities expanding both in population and physical footprint. Between 1990 and 2020, urban populations in the analyzed cities grew by an average of 36.3%. However, this growth has largely been unstructured, characterized by leapfrog expansion, low-density developments, and disconnected urban sprawl. The inefficient spatial structure makes public transportation costly and less effective while increasing infrastructure expenses. Economic development across cities varies significantly, with major hubs like Almaty, Bishkek, and Dushanbe showing steady growth, while others remain stagnant. A striking issue is the disconnect between jobs and housing, as only 19% of the urban population lives near economic centers—far below the global benchmark of 60%. This weak integration between work and living spaces leads to increased congestion, long commuting times, and higher energy consumption.

Rising Climate Risks and Environmental Challenges

The study highlights severe climate and environmental risks affecting Central Asian cities. Over 75% of the urban population is exposed to earthquake risks, while 17% faces the urban heat island (UHI) effect, where urban surfaces absorb and retain heat, worsening extreme temperatures. Cities such as Kyzylorda and Semey face high flood risks due to their geographic positioning and lack of resilient infrastructure. Air pollution is another critical issue, with many cities exceeding international limits for particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) emissions due to coal-based heating, outdated industrial practices, and high private vehicle use. Green space availability is alarmingly low, with an average of 7.6 square meters per capita, significantly below the European average of 18.2 square meters. These environmental deficits highlight the urgent need for sustainable urban planning and green infrastructure investments.

Vision for Sustainable and Resilient Cities

The study presents two urban growth scenarios: No Intervention (business-as-usual) and Vision (sustainable, compact, and green development). The Vision scenario focuses on strategic densification, limiting urban sprawl while making cities more livable and efficient. For instance, Bishkek could reduce unnecessary urban expansion by 86%, resulting in major infrastructure cost savings. In Namangan and Shakhrisabz, sprawl could be curbed by 36%, improving resource efficiency. The Vision scenario prioritizes compact urban growth, integrating housing with job centers and reducing the need for long commutes. Improved urban planning would ensure that new developments are well-connected, accessible, and resource-efficient.

Public transportation and mobility remain key areas for improvement. Currently, only 7% of the population lives within walking distance of a bus stop, while bicycle infrastructure is almost non-existent. The study calls for investments in high-capacity transit, including bus rapid transit (BRT) systems, electric buses, and non-motorized transport infrastructure. Expanding pedestrian networks, integrating cycling lanes, and promoting e-mobility solutions such as electric scooters could significantly improve air quality and urban mobility. Cities like Almaty and Bishkek would benefit from reduced congestion and lower emissions through these strategies.

Decarbonizing Energy and Strengthening Climate Adaptation

Energy consumption is a major contributor to emissions in Central Asia, with over 75% of the region’s electricity generated from fossil fuels, mainly natural gas and coal. Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have some of the highest per capita GHG emissions in the world. The study proposes transitioning district heating systems to cleaner energy sources, enhancing energy efficiency in buildings, and investing in decentralized renewable energy grids. By implementing solar and wind energy solutions alongside modernized electricity grids, cities can significantly reduce carbon footprints while ensuring energy security.

Climate adaptation is another crucial focus. The study calls for expanding urban greenery, enhancing tree cover, and investing in nature-based solutions to mitigate flooding and heat stress. Cities like Kyzylorda, which are prone to floods, could benefit from wetland restoration and climate-adaptive drainage infrastructure. Stricter zoning laws must be enforced to prevent construction in high-risk areas prone to earthquakes and landslides. By improving urban resilience strategies, cities can better protect their populations and critical infrastructure from climate-related disasters.

Building a Sustainable Future for Central Asia

Governance and policy implementation remain essential in driving sustainability. The study emphasizes the need for stronger local governance frameworks, as many climate policies currently lack proper implementation mechanisms at the subnational level. Public participation in urban planning is critical, ensuring that community concerns are incorporated into decision-making. Workshops and consultations conducted in all five countries have shown that citizens prioritize improved air quality, better public transport, and more green spaces. Addressing these needs through well-planned investments and policies can enhance urban livability and resilience.

The Reimagining Central Asian Cities report ultimately serves as a call to action for policymakers, urban planners, and international organizations to prioritize sustainable development. The findings suggest that cities can achieve a low-carbon future through strategic investments in public transport, energy efficiency, and green infrastructure—without imposing excessive financial burdens. By implementing compact growth policies, promoting renewable energy, and strengthening climate adaptation, cities can reduce GHG emissions while fostering economic development.

If executed effectively, these strategies could position Central Asia as a model for climate-smart urban development. By aligning urban planning with environmental sustainability, Central Asian cities have the potential to not only mitigate climate risks but also improve the quality of life for millions of residents. The region now stands at a critical juncture where decisive action can ensure a more sustainable, resilient, and prosperous future.