Vietnam’s Economic Rebound and E-Mobility Shift: A Path to Sustainable Growth

Vietnam’s economy rebounded strongly in 2024 with 7.1% GDP growth, driven by exports and manufacturing, while advancing its ambitious e-mobility transition to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Challenges remain in energy infrastructure and investment efficiency, but strategic policies could position Vietnam as a leader in green transportation.

Vietnam’s economy saw a remarkable resurgence in 2024, with GDP growth soaring to 7.1 percent, outpacing regional peers and making it the fastest-growing developing economy in East Asia. This strong recovery was primarily fueled by a robust rebound in exports, which grew by 15.5 percent, reversing the previous year’s contraction. The manufacturing sector played a pivotal role in this expansion, particularly in electronics, motor vehicles, and machinery. Foreign direct investment (FDI) commitments also surged, reaching US$38.2 billion, with 67 percent directed toward the manufacturing sector.

Despite these gains, private consumption remained moderate, contributing 54 percent of GDP, which was lower than the regional median of 61.7 percent. The sluggish consumption was attributed to high household savings, reflecting cautious consumer sentiment despite improving wages and a recovering real estate market. While the economy displayed resilience, underlying structural challenges remained, including financial sector vulnerabilities and the need for greater public investment efficiency.

Monetary and Fiscal Policies: Striking a Delicate Balance

Vietnam’s fiscal policy in 2024 leaned toward consolidation, with a fiscal surplus of 1.8 percent of GDP. This was largely due to the under-disbursement of public investments and reduced recurrent expenditures. The slowdown in capital expenditure was attributed to bureaucratic hurdles, delays in land clearance for infrastructure projects, and fluctuations in raw material costs. Despite these challenges, the government maintained a long-term focus on infrastructure development, including plans for expanded public transport networks and energy security initiatives.

On the monetary front, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) intervened to stabilize the exchange rate, selling US$9.4 billion in foreign reserves as the Vietnamese đong (VND) depreciated by 4.4 percent against the U.S. dollar. Inflation remained under control at 3.6 percent, well below the central bank’s 4.5 percent target. Credit growth accelerated in the latter half of the year, reaching 15 percent, primarily driven by the wholesale, retail trade, manufacturing, and real estate sectors. However, concerns lingered regarding the financial sector’s asset quality and the rising volume of non-performing loans (NPLs).

E-Mobility: A Transformational Shift in Transportation

Vietnam is undergoing a significant shift towards e-mobility, aligning with its commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. The transport sector is one of the country’s largest contributors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with road transport accounting for a substantial share. Recognizing the urgency of decarbonization, the government has set ambitious targets, aiming for 50 percent of all urban vehicles and 100 percent of buses and taxis to be electric by 2030, with full electrification of road transport by 2050.

Vietnam is uniquely positioned to lead this transition, particularly in the two-wheeler (2W) segment, which dominates the country’s vehicle market. Currently, 94 percent of registered vehicles in Vietnam are motorcycles, making electric two-wheelers (E-2Ws) the fastest path to decarbonization. The E-2W market is expected to grow rapidly, accounting for 56 percent of total 2W sales by 2035. The affordability, convenience, and efficiency of E-2Ws make them an ideal solution for Vietnam’s urban transport challenges.

Powering the E-Mobility Transition: Energy and Infrastructure Challenges

While the shift to EVs presents immense economic and environmental benefits, Vietnam faces significant challenges in energy infrastructure and grid readiness. The country’s Eighth Power Development Plan (PDP8) does not currently incorporate additional electricity demand from e-mobility, raising concerns about future energy supply. By 2050, EVs could increase Vietnam’s total electricity demand by up to 28 percent, requiring substantial investments in grid expansion, renewable energy integration, and energy efficiency improvements.

One of the key bottlenecks is the development of a comprehensive EV charging network. Currently, public charging infrastructure is limited, deterring potential EV buyers. The government must accelerate the rollout of charging stations, particularly in urban centers and along key highways. Smart charging solutions, time-differentiated electricity tariffs, and integration with rooftop solar energy are essential strategies to minimize grid stress and optimize power distribution.

Additionally, the transition to e-mobility should be accompanied by a broader shift toward electrified public transport. Investments in electric buses and improved urban transit systems could significantly reduce emissions, ease congestion, and enhance mobility for Vietnam’s growing urban population.

Economic and Environmental Gains: The Road to Sustainability

The adoption of EVs presents a significant opportunity for Vietnam to reduce its dependence on imported fossil fuels and strengthen its energy security. By 2050, the transition to EVs could save up to US$498 billion in fuel costs, based on avoided gasoline and diesel consumption. In the 2W segment alone, Vietnam has already saved 390 million liters of gasoline due to early EV adoption, and this figure is projected to rise exponentially.

Beyond economic benefits, e-mobility will have profound environmental and public health impacts. The switch to EVs is expected to reduce nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions by 122,000 tons and particulate matter (PM10) emissions by 8,600 tons by 2050, significantly improving air quality in major cities. With Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City frequently experiencing hazardous air pollution levels, transitioning to EVs could drastically cut health-related costs and improve overall quality of life.

Moreover, e-mobility is expected to generate up to 6.5 million new jobs across the EV value chain, including manufacturing, battery production, charging infrastructure, and maintenance services. This transition offers a unique opportunity for Vietnam to establish itself as a regional hub for EV production and innovation.

Vietnam’s Path to a Greener Future

Vietnam’s economic outlook remains strong, driven by a dynamic manufacturing sector, robust trade performance, and increasing foreign investments. However, sustaining long-term growth will require strategic policy interventions to mitigate financial sector risks, enhance public investment efficiency, and strengthen energy resilience.

The transition to e-mobility presents both challenges and opportunities. While infrastructure gaps and grid limitations pose immediate hurdles, proactive government policies, private sector participation, and international collaboration can pave the way for a successful transition. If effectively implemented, Vietnam’s e-mobility roadmap could position the country as a leader in green transportation, setting an example for other developing nations striving for sustainable development.

With a clear vision, strong policy support, and investments in critical infrastructure, Vietnam is poised to drive a cleaner, greener, and more energy-secure future.