Record heat puts French grain harvest at risk

A record heatwave in France threatens to damage maize and wheat crops, with analysts warning of potential yields below 10 million metric tons for the first time since 1990.

A record heatwave in France, the European Union's largest grain ‌producer, could damage maize crops in the midst of their growing season while also denting wheat yields on the eve of harvesting, analysts said on Tuesday.

Euronext wheat and maize futures rose about 3% on Monday as concern grew that hot, dry weather could damage crops in France and other ‌major EU grain producers. Much of France is under a maximum heat alert, with temperatures of around 40 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) on Tuesday, ‌and up to 43 C expected this week in parts of western France, Meteo France said.

The heat could hit non-irrigated maize fields hard enough to push France's maize crop below 10 million metric tons for the first time since 1990 if forecasts are confirmed and no significant rain arrives within 10 days, said Vincent Braak, head ⁠of crop ​analysis at Expana. That would compare ⁠with 13.2 million tons in 2025.

That is without taking account of frequent water restrictions in France, which would affect irrigated maize. "If these were to become widespread, it ⁠would pose a real problem (to maize)," Jean-Charles Deswarte from French crop institute Arvalis said.

For soft wheat, Braak said France's yield could fall below 7.0 tons per hectare, ​against 7.4 t/ha in 2025, which would leave production at least 1 million tons below last year's crop of 33.4 million ⁠tons. Later-developing wheat areas in northern France face the biggest risk because high temperatures can halt grain filling, reducing kernel weight, analysts said.

"The most exposed areas are those that ⁠had ​the best potential and were supposed to save the national average," said Sebastien Poncelet, senior analyst at Argus Media. The hot weather follows a first heatwave in May that had already accelerated crop development, contributing to a fast start to barley and wheat harvesting.

"What is certain ⁠is that it brings the harvest forward by a week or two compared with usual. Personally, I've never seen this on the farm," ⁠French grain grower Cedric Benoist said. Crop ⁠monitoring service MARS warned on Monday that heat and limited rainfall could threaten yield potential in western and central Europe.

The heatwave is expected to shift east later this week, raising risks for less mature ‌wheat in Germany, Poland ‌and the Baltic region, Poncelet said.