El Niño’s Return Raises the Stakes for a World Already Under Climate Stress

The World Meteorological Organization has confirmed that El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are expected to strengthen rapidly in the coming months. The forecast matters because a strong El Niño could raise the risk of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and marine heatwaves across multiple regions, testing early warning systems, food security planning and disaster preparedness.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has confirmed that El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific, setting the stage for a period of heightened climate risk across many parts of the world. The event is expected to strengthen rapidly in the coming months and is likely to become a strong El Niño between July and September 2026.

El Niño is a major climate pattern that can alter rainfall, heat and storm behaviour across regions, often with serious consequences for agriculture, water supplies, public health, energy demand, coastal livelihoods and disaster-response systems. The WMO has warned that the developing event will increase the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and marine heatwaves in many areas.

According to the WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update, forecasts from leading international climate centres show significant warming across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures are expected to rise more than 2°C above average in key monitoring areas, and scientists have high confidence in the outlook because climate models show strong agreement.

Heat, rain and drought will not hit evenly

The developing El Niño is expected to push temperatures above average across most populated land areas between 60° south and 60° north latitude. Ocean temperatures are also forecast to remain warmer than normal across the equatorial Pacific, Indian Ocean and tropical Atlantic. These warming signals matter because heat risk is not limited to land. Marine heatwaves can affect fisheries, coral ecosystems and coastal economies, while land-based heatwaves can strain health systems, raise cooling demand and worsen working conditions in outdoor sectors.

Rainfall patterns are expected to shift sharply. Wetter-than-average conditions are forecast for the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, southern Europe, parts of the Gulf of Guinea and sections of the southwestern United States. Drier conditions are more likely across parts of Australia, the Indian subcontinent, the Greater Horn of Africa, Central America, the Caribbean and northwestern South America.

The uneven geography is one of El Niño's biggest governance challenges. Some regions may need to prepare for floods and heavy rainfall, while others may need to plan for water stress, drought impacts and agricultural disruption. The same global climate pattern can create very different local emergencies.

Warnings only matter if they trigger action

The WMO said it is expanding coordination with United Nations agencies, humanitarian organisations, governments and sectors such as agriculture and health. The goal is to strengthen seasonal forecasts and early warning systems so countries can act before weather risks turn into wider social and economic shocks.

El Niño is a naturally occurring pattern that develops every two to seven years and usually lasts between nine and twelve months. Its impacts differ from one event to another, but the value of seasonal forecasting lies in giving governments, communities and businesses time to prepare.

• For agriculture, that can mean adjusting planting decisions, crop choices, irrigation plans and food-security monitoring.
• Health systems may have to prepare for heat stress and weather-linked risks.
• For water managers, it can mean planning for shortages or flood pressure.
• Humanitarian agencies will have to identify areas where drought or heavy rainfall could worsen existing vulnerabilities.

The key question is whether institutions move early enough to reduce exposure. Early warning systems are only effective when they lead to timely decisions, clear communication and resources reaching the people most likely to be affected.

The next test is speed, not certainty

The coming months will test how governments and institutions interpret and act on the WMO warning. The first indicator to watch is whether the forecast strengthening between July and September materialises as expected. The second is how national meteorological agencies translate global outlooks into local advisories for farmers, water authorities, health officials and disaster-management teams.

The peak period between November and February will be especially important. By then, the event is expected to have strengthened further, and early signs of regional rainfall shifts, heat stress or marine warming may become clearer. Countries facing likely dry conditions will need to monitor water storage, crop prospects and food-security risks. Areas facing wetter conditions will need to watch flood preparedness, drainage capacity and emergency-response planning.

Public communication will also be crucial. The WMO has clarified that it classifies El Niño events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong, and does not use the term "super El Niño" in official forecasts. That distinction is important. The risk is serious, but exaggerated language can distort public understanding and weaken trust in climate warnings.

El Niño cannot be prevented, but its impacts can be reduced when forecasts are treated as a call to prepare rather than a distant technical update. The world now has a clear warning that the tropical Pacific is entering a stronger phase of climate disruption. What happens next will depend not only on ocean temperatures, but on how quickly governments, communities and institutions turn that warning into action.