WMO Warns Strong El Niño Could Trigger Global Extreme Weather

According to the latest WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update, the climate pattern is likely to become a strong El Niño between July and September 2026.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has confirmed that El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are expected to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, raising the risk of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall, and other extreme weather events across many parts of the world.

According to the latest WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update, the climate pattern is likely to become a strong El Niño between July and September 2026. Forecasts from leading international climate centres show significant warming across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperatures expected to rise more than 2°C above average in key monitoring areas. Scientists say there is high confidence in the forecast because climate models show remarkable agreement.

Higher temperatures and changing rainfall expected worldwide

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said El Niño is already underway and is expected to continue strengthening through the Northern Hemisphere autumn before reaching its peak between November and February. She warned that the developing event will increase the likelihood of severe drought, heavy rainfall, heatwaves on land, and marine heatwaves in many regions.

The seasonal outlook indicates that above-average temperatures are highly likely across most populated land areas between 60° south and 60° north latitude. Ocean temperatures are also expected to remain warmer than normal across the equatorial Pacific, Indian Ocean, and tropical Atlantic.

Rainfall patterns are also expected to shift. Wetter-than-average conditions are forecast for the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, southern Europe, parts of the Gulf of Guinea, and sections of the southwestern United States. Drier conditions are more likely across parts of Australia, the Indian subcontinent, the Greater Horn of Africa, Central America, the Caribbean, and northwestern South America.

WMO expands early warning and preparedness efforts

The WMO said it is increasing coordination with United Nations agencies, humanitarian organisations, governments, and sectors such as agriculture and health to help countries prepare for the possible impacts of El Niño. Seasonal climate forecasts and early warning systems are being strengthened to support timely decision-making and reduce risks to lives, livelihoods, and economies.

The organisation noted that El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that develops every two to seven years and usually lasts between nine and twelve months. While its impacts vary from one event to another, the WMO stressed that understanding seasonal climate forecasts allows governments and communities to prepare more effectively for changing weather conditions. The agency also clarified that it classifies El Niño events as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong, and does not use the term "super El Niño" in its official forecasts.