Ivory Coast Cocoa Crisis: El Nino and Crop Woes Threaten Key Industry

Ivory Coast, the world's leading cocoa producer, faces a potential 10% drop in its 2026/27 cocoa crop due to adverse weather conditions, disease, and inadequate crop care. Experts attribute these challenges to the El Nino weather pattern, which might exacerbate the situation and impact global cocoa prices.

Ivory Coast, the top cocoa-producing nation, is bracing for a considerable decline in its 2026/27 main cocoa crop. Experts predict a decrease of more than 10% due to adverse factors like excessive rainfall, crop disease, and insufficient care.

These conditions are attributed to the El Nino weather pattern, which affects rainfall, temperature, and wind patterns across West Africa. The primary cacao crop, spanning September to February, is forecasted to drop to around 1.35-1.45 million metric tons from the 1.6 million estimated this season.

Consultancy firm Oxford Economics warns that the simultaneous influence of El Nino and rising fertilizer prices could exacerbate the situation, pushing the total cocoa yield decline to nearly 20%. This situation has potential ramifications for global cocoa prices, reminding stakeholders of the challenges faced during the previous El Nino event.