India's Economic Trajectory: Growth, Challenges, and Currency Dynamics

India's economy is projected to grow at 7.3 to 7.5 percent by March 2026, with a slight slowdown to around 7 percent in 2026-27. Despite external pressures and currency depreciation, strong services and manufacturing performance provide resilience. Policy emphasis remains on industrialisation and easing business operations.

India's economy is anticipated to expand at a rate of 7.3 to 7.5 percent by March 2026, with a minor dip to approximately 7 percent in 2026-27, as per consultancy firm Grant Thornton Bharat. The firm attributes this growth to robust performance in the services and manufacturing sectors.

Rishi Shah, Partner and Economic Advisory Services Leader at Grant Thornton Bharat, highlighted the resilience of exports despite US tariff challenges. He noted that geopolitical issues in South America and the Middle East might challenge supply chains, adding that policy decisions need foresight for industrialisation trends seen in advanced economies.

Concerning the Indian rupee, Shah expects stability around 90 per US dollar, despite the need to adjust to a weaker currency. He supports another 25 basis points cut by the Reserve Bank, citing inflation stabilisation. The Monetary Policy Committee is set to meet soon to discuss these financial directions.