Goldman Sachs: Paytm Set for Growth with Strategic Market Moves

Goldman Sachs has increased revenue and EBITDA estimates for Paytm, citing market share gains in payments and strong financial service growth. The brokerage anticipates a continued upward trajectory, with forecasts showing sustained revenue growth and improved EBITDA margins reaching 15-20% within the next 2.5 to 3 years.

Goldman Sachs has reaffirmed its confidence in the potential of Paytm, raising its projections for the company's revenue and EBITDA, driven by its expanding market share in the payments sector and robust growth in financial services.

The investment firm has lifted its revenue forecast for Paytm by 2% and EBITDA projections by up to 6%, acknowledging the firm’s consistent market share acquisition and strong performance in financial services.

Buoyed by its ability to continuously onboard online merchants and expand its postpaid product line, Paytm is poised to maintain its growth momentum, according to Goldman Sachs.

The brokerage predicts a 24% year-on-year increase in Paytm’s revenue for FY27, with EBITDA anticipated to more than double, driven by a CAGR exceeding 50% from FY26 to FY30. Trading at a 40x FY28 P/E ratio, Paytm's valuation could re-rate if it sustains its revenue growth and achieves an EBITDA margin of 15-20% in the next two to three years.

Data from the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) shows that Paytm's UPI market share by value increased to 6.7% during April and May 2026, up from 6.5% in the previous quarter and 5.5% a year ago. Goldman Sachs estimates Paytm's EBITDA to be Rs 1.7 billion for the first quarter of FY27, boosted by contributions from financial services and growth in high-margin payment products.

The firm forecasts EBITDA margins to rise to 7.1% in the first quarter of FY27, up from 5.8% in the prior quarter, with an FY27 forecast of 10%, indicating a 400-basis-point expansion from FY26. Goldman Sachs believes Paytm is well-positioned to achieve its targeted EBITDA margins of 15-20% within the next few years, projecting 15% in FY28, 18% in FY29, and 20% by FY30.

Furthermore, Goldman Sachs expects net income to reach Rs 1.8 billion in the first quarter of FY27, marking a 13% sequential increase and a 32% year-on-year rise. Paytm's parent company, One 97 Communications, closed at Rs 1133 per share, a 0.72% increase on Monday.