China's Emissions Plateau: Progress or Mere Stagnation?

China's carbon dioxide emissions have remained flat for 18 months, spurred by a rise in the chemical sector offsetting other declines. China's government aims to peak emissions by 2030 and cut 7-10% by 2035. Meanwhile, growth in plastics production has contributed to maintaining current emission levels.

In the third quarter, China's carbon dioxide emissions remained static year-over-year, marking an 18-month trend of stabilized or declining emissions, as per a Carbon Brief analysis. Initiated in March 2024, this trend suggests annual emissions could decrease unless a spike occurs by year-end.

The report, authored by Lauri Myllyvirta of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, indicates emission levels increased by 0.8% in 2024 following a pandemic-induced recovery. The Chinese government aims to cap emissions by 2030, reducing them by 7% to 10% by 2035, though these goals fall short of European expectations.

As the U.S. steps back from climate leadership, China is poised to play a significant role, notably at the COP30 climate summit. Despite a dip in transport emissions and stable power sector output, chemical sector growth and increased domestic plastic demand have upheld emission levels.