WTO-IMF Index Shows Sharp Rise in Global Trade Policy Activity

The latest findings show governments are increasingly using trade measures, particularly restrictive policies, as economic, industrial and geopolitical pressures reshape international commerce.

Global trade policy activity has surged to its highest level since records began following the Global Financial Crisis, according to an updated Trade Policy Activity (TPA) Index developed by economists from the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The latest findings show governments are increasingly using trade measures, particularly restrictive policies, as economic, industrial and geopolitical pressures reshape international commerce.

Trade measures reach record levels

The updated TPA Index, which now includes data through May 2026, tracks changes in trade policies across a wide range of economies on a monthly basis. Using information from the WTO's Trade Monitoring Database and the Global Trade Alert, the index measures actual policy actions taken by governments rather than market expectations or uncertainty alone.

The data reveal that global trade policy activity continued climbing throughout 2025 and reached a new record in early 2026. Between January and May 2026, overall trade policy activity was nearly twice as high as in 2024 and around 25 percent higher than the 2025 average, indicating a significant acceleration in government intervention affecting international trade.

Restrictive measures driving the increase

The WTO-IMF analysis shows that the recent rise has been led mainly by restrictive trade measures, including tariff increases, import bans and quantitative restrictions. These policies have expanded more rapidly than any other category since 2025.

Other non-facilitating measures, particularly subsidies, have also continued to grow steadily. By contrast, trade-facilitating measures—such as reducing trade barriers or simplifying customs procedures—have lost momentum in recent years.

One notable exception occurred during the Strait of Hormuz crisis, when more than two-thirds of all measures introduced were aimed at facilitating trade to help maintain the movement of goods during the disruption.

Trend extends beyond major economies

While trade tensions among the world's largest economies continue to play a significant role, the report finds that the increase in trade policy activity is no longer limited to the G20. Many non-G20 economies have also introduced substantially more trade measures in recent years, suggesting a broader shift in how governments are using trade policy to pursue economic resilience, industrial development and national security objectives.

The index identifies major spikes during key global events, including the US-China tariff dispute (2018–2019), the COVID-19 pandemic (2020), the war in Ukraine (2022) and the renewed wave of trade tensions beginning in 2025.

New tool helps monitor global trade

The researchers have also developed an experimental nowcasting model that combines the TPA Index with commodity prices, uncertainty indicators and Google Trends data to estimate trade policy activity in near real time.

Early projections suggest trade policy activity may have increased further in June 2026, despite some moderation earlier in the year. Although the nowcasting model remains under development, the WTO and IMF say it demonstrates the potential for faster monitoring of global trade developments and changing policy trends.

The organisations believe the TPA Index offers policymakers, researchers and businesses a valuable tool for understanding how evolving trade measures are shaping global supply chains, economic resilience and international trade relations.