GenAI’s Uneven Impact: Why Digital Gaps Shape the Future of Global Jobs

Generative AI is set to reshape global jobs unevenly, with richer countries gaining more due to better digital access and task structures. In poorer economies, workers face faster disruption but slower benefits, risking deeper inequality without strong policy support.

Generative artificial intelligence is often described as a technology that will transform work everywhere, boosting productivity and creating new opportunities. But new research by the International Labour Organization, in collaboration with the World Bank and using global datasets from institutions like the OECD, paints a more complex picture. Instead of delivering equal benefits, GenAI may deepen the divide between rich and poor countries. The study shows that while the technology has global reach, its real impact depends heavily on local conditions such as digital access, job structures and skills.

Disruption Comes Before the Benefits

One of the most striking findings is the imbalance between risks and rewards. In many developing countries, workers whose jobs are vulnerable to automation already have enough internet access to be affected. At the same time, workers who could use AI to improve their productivity often lack reliable connectivity. This creates a situation where job losses or disruptions may happen quickly, while the benefits of AI take much longer to appear. In simple terms, disruption comes first, and the rewards may not follow for everyone.

Who Is Most Exposed to AI

The study shows that GenAI mainly affects white-collar jobs, such as clerical, professional and managerial roles. This is different from earlier waves of automation, which mostly replaced routine manual work. In richer countries, where these types of jobs are more common, a large share of workers are already exposed to AI. In poorer countries, fewer jobs fall into these categories, so overall exposure is lower.

However, this does not mean developing countries are safe. When digital access is considered, the gap becomes clear. In many low-income countries, even if jobs could benefit from AI, workers cannot use it due to a lack of internet or digital tools. Meanwhile, those in automation-prone roles who do have access remain at risk of losing their jobs.

Inequality Across Workers and Sectors

The impact of AI is not the same for everyone. Higher-skilled and better-educated workers are more likely to be exposed to AI, especially in jobs that involve knowledge and information. Women and younger workers are particularly at risk because they are more likely to work in clerical and administrative roles that AI can automate.

Different sectors also show different patterns. In advanced economies, AI exposure is spread across industries like finance, communication and retail. In developing countries, exposure is more limited and concentrated in services, while sectors like agriculture remain largely unaffected. But even in exposed sectors, the lack of digital access prevents many workers from benefiting from AI tools.

Why Job Tasks Matter More Than Job Titles

A key insight from the research is that the same job can look very different depending on the country. For example, a clerical job in a high-income country may involve more digital and analytical work, while the same job in a lower-income country may include more routine or manual tasks. Since AI works best with digital and analytical tasks, its impact is much stronger in richer economies.

This means that global estimates often overstate how much AI will affect developing countries. When the actual tasks people perform are taken into account, the gap becomes even clearer. The technology is not just about job titles, but about what people actually do at work.

A Risk of Missed Opportunities

The study also warns about a possible “white-collar bypass.” In many developed countries, office jobs helped people, especially women and young workers, move into stable and better-paying careers. If AI automates these roles before they fully develop in poorer countries, those opportunities may never emerge.

Early signs from the job market suggest this shift has already begun. Some tasks that AI can easily handle, like writing or coding, are seeing reduced demand, while jobs that work alongside AI are growing. Younger workers, often in entry-level roles, may find it harder to enter the workforce as these changes unfold.

The Road Ahead

The overall message is clear. AI will not affect all countries equally. Its impact will depend on access to technology, education and infrastructure. Without strong investment in digital connectivity and skills, the benefits of AI are likely to stay concentrated in richer countries, while poorer nations face more risks than rewards.

In the end, the future of work will not be shaped by technology alone. Policy decisions, infrastructure and education systems will play a crucial role in determining whether AI becomes a tool for shared progress or a driver of greater inequality.