From Digital Trade to Local Jobs: OECD Reveals How Services Growth Is Reshaping Labour Markets

The OECD finds that expanding services trade can create jobs, increase worker mobility and participation, and generate 0.6–1.6 additional local jobs for every new tradable-services job. Governments, development partners and businesses can maximise these gains through stronger digital infrastructure, skills development, regional connectivity and policies that ensure opportunities are widely shared.

Services trade is becoming an increasingly important source of jobs, investment and regional economic activity, but its wider impact on workers is still poorly understood. A 2026 OECD Trade Policy Paper, prepared by researchers from the OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate and drawing on data from the OECD Inter-Country Input-Output database, national labour-force surveys, Brazil's Ministry of Labour, France's INSEE and the United States Census Bureau, shows that expanding services trade affects much more than companies directly selling abroad. It can change who gets jobs, encourage workers to move between employers and regions, bring more people into the labour market and create additional employment in local businesses.

The scale of the research makes the findings particularly relevant for policymakers. The OECD examined more than 92 million individual employment observations across 32 advanced and emerging economies, generally covering 2008 to 2023. It considered services exports, services imports and imported services used by domestic industries. Rather than looking only at total employment, researchers examined changes in workers' age, gender, education, job mobility and location, as well as the wider employment effects of expanding tradable services.

Services trade is changing who benefits from globalisation

The findings suggest that expanding services trade is gradually changing the composition of the workforce. Highly traded services initially tend to employ more men, partly because women are strongly represented in less-tradable activities such as health, education and food services. However, as services exports expand, the share of women working in exposed sectors and occupations tends to increase.

Younger workers also appear relatively well positioned to benefit. Growing services exports are associated with a younger workforce, potentially reflecting the importance of digital and technological skills in internationally traded activities. Urban workers also become more prominent as trade expands because cities generally offer stronger digital connectivity, larger pools of specialised workers and better access to international business networks.

Importantly, the OECD finds no simple division between highly educated winners and low-skilled losers. Medium-educated workers can also gain from expanding services exports, while imported services used as business inputs may support employment opportunities for workers with lower education.

For governments, this means services-trade strategies should be closely connected with education and employment policies. Expanding university education alone will not be enough. Vocational training, mid-level digital skills, continuous reskilling and measures helping women and young people participate in internationally connected sectors could broaden the benefits.

New service jobs can multiply across local economies

One of the strongest findings comes from detailed analysis of Brazil, France and the United States, covering 510 Brazilian micro-regions, 321 French employment zones and 722 US commuting zones.

The OECD estimates that every additional job in tradable services generates about 0.9 additional local non-tradable jobs in Brazil, 0.6 in France and 1.6 in the United States.

This means employment created in technology, finance, consulting, research, telecommunications or other tradable activities can generate demand for restaurants, retail businesses, construction, childcare and other locally provided services.

The numbers illustrate the potential development impact. If an economy experienced an increase of 10,000 tradable-services jobs and achieved similar multiplier effects, the associated local employment could theoretically range from around 6,000 to 16,000 additional jobs. The OECD cautions that country differences mean these figures should not be treated as automatic forecasts.

The findings nevertheless give governments and development partners a strong reason to consider services clusters as part of regional-development strategies. Broadband, transport connectivity, reliable electricity, digital infrastructure and workforce skills can help smaller cities and disadvantaged regions participate in markets that were previously concentrated in major economic centres.

Governments and development partners have a bigger role

Services trade is also linked with greater labour-market dynamism. Workers in more trade-exposed activities tend to stay in individual jobs for shorter periods, suggesting more frequent job changes. However, the study finds little evidence that this is caused by greater unemployment, widespread movement between broad sectors or increased use of temporary contracts. Much of the movement may therefore reflect workers changing jobs in search of better opportunities.

Regional mobility remains limited, less than 1 per cent of workers typically move between regions in a year, but services trade is associated with a small increase in such movement. More importantly, expanding services activity can raise the proportion of a region's population that is employed, suggesting that new opportunities may attract people who were previously outside the labour force.

The effects can be stronger in relatively disadvantaged regions with lower income and higher unemployment. This allows development agencies, multilateral institutions and governments to use services trade as part of regional inclusion strategies rather than treating it solely as an export issue.

Development partners can support countries through investments and technical assistance in broadband, digital public infrastructure, skills, professional qualifications, services-trade regulation and better labour-market data.

Big opportunities for business, but new risks demand attention

For private companies, the findings point to opportunities extending beyond direct exporters. Technology, finance, professional services, telecommunications, research and transport companies can become anchors for local business ecosystems. Suppliers, retailers and other service providers can benefit as internationally connected firms increase local spending and demand.

But the transition carries risks. Tradable services remain geographically concentrated, meaning regions without adequate infrastructure and skills could fall further behind. Younger, female and urban workers appear particularly well positioned to capture new opportunities, while older, rural and less-connected workers may need additional support.

Artificial intelligence, teleworking and digital platforms could accelerate these changes by making more services deliverable across borders. Governments should therefore combine trade liberalisation with investment in skills, digital connectivity, portable social protection and regional development.

The OECD's broader message is that services trade should no longer be viewed simply as a trade-policy issue. It is increasingly an employment, competitiveness and development issue. For policymakers, development partners and businesses, the opportunity lies in ensuring that internationally connected services create not only export revenues but also stronger local economies, wider labour-force participation and more inclusive employment growth.