Trade Uncertainty Weighs on Markets Amid Economic Data Deluge

As confusion about U.S. trade policy persists, Asian markets and the dollar begin the week cautiously, facing a mix of economic data and tech earnings. Despite President Trump's claims of progress in trade talks, tangible evidence is missing, raising concerns over a potential recession.

Asian share markets and the dollar exhibited caution on Monday amid persistent confusion over U.S. trade policy. The week ahead is laden with major economic reports and tech earnings announcements.

Despite U.S. President Donald Trump's assertions of trade advancements with China and other countries, concrete evidence remains elusive. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was unable to support Trump's claims of ongoing tariff discussions with China, fuelling concerns about economic impacts. "The uncertainty itself is damaging," noted Christian Keller, Barclays' head of economics research. "A recession seems increasingly likely as firms prepare for reduced visibility."

Markets showed muted activity, with MSCI's Asia-Pacific shares up 0.1%, Japan's Nikkei rising 0.9%, and EUROSTOXX 50 futures adding 0.3%. However, U.S. futures saw declines as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures dipped 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively. Corporate earnings support boosted the S&P by nearly 12% since April, but it lingers 10% below its peak.