IMF Projections Highlight Pakistan's Economic Stability Challenges

IMF projections indicate short-term economic stability for Pakistan, but high debt, low investment, and minimal job growth remain significant challenges. Economic growth is expected to marginally outpace population growth while inflation falls. Despite narrowing budget deficits, foreign direct investment stays low, underscoring a constrained economic trajectory.

The latest report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggests that Pakistan's economy has found short-term stability, yet continues to grapple with substantial debt, weak investment, and sluggish employment growth. Recent IMF projections, unveiled alongside a fresh USD 1.2 billion disbursement to the country, indicate a slight increase in economic growth from 2.6% in FY-25 to 3.2% by FY-26, barely keeping pace with the population growth of 240.5 million individuals, according to a report by Dawn.

With a per capita income of USD 1,677, the economic trend leans more toward containment than recovery. The population growth rate, cited by mid-2025 official figures at 2.55% and by the World Bank at 1.8-1.9%, pairs with inflation averaging 23.4% in FY-24, dropping to an anticipated 4.5% in FY-25, and predicted to rise to 6.3% in FY-26. Unemployment is projected to only slightly improve from 8.3% in FY-25 to 7.5% in FY-26, reflecting the current growth's limited job creation capabilities.

Fiscal projections point to a rise in government revenue and grants from 12.7% of GDP in FY-25 to 16.3% by FY-26, with expenditures near 20% of GDP. Consequently, the budget deficit is expected to shrink from -6.8% to -4.0% of GDP. Nonetheless, public debt continues to be a burden, hovering around 72-73% of GDP, while domestic borrowing keeps interest costs high. Despite currency stability signs, foreign direct investment remains modest at 0.5-0.6% of GDP, limiting economic expansion prospects.