UK Inflation Trends: A 2026 Forecast Update

The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that British consumer price inflation will average 2.3% in 2026. This is a revision from the previous 2.5% expected for this year. Despite an unforeseen Middle East conflict affecting energy prices, inflation is predicted to hit the Bank of England's target by 2027.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has predicted that British consumer price inflation will average 2.3% in 2026, according to Finance Minister Rachel Reeves. This update was shared during a budget update speech on Tuesday.

In her last full budget presentation in November, Reeves disclosed that the OBR expected inflation to be at 2.5% this year. However, recent inflation readings have been lower than anticipated and are likely to approach the Bank of England's target of 2% by April.

The OBR forecasts for 2027 and 2028 remain consistent with the previous estimates of 2.0%, even amid rising global energy prices and investor concerns due to the Middle East conflict. Inflation is anticipated to align with the Bank's targets.