Inside Pakistan’s Schooling Gap: Why Millions of Children Remain Out of Class

A new World Bank study using satellite data reveals that Pakistan’s 25 million out-of-school children are unevenly distributed, with access shaped by geography, poverty, and the dominance of private schools in urban areas. It also shows that poor accessibility, socio-economic barriers, and shocks like the 2022 floods continue to widen education gaps, meaning building schools alone will not solve the crisis.

Pakistan’s education challenge has long been summed up in one stark figure: millions of children are still out of school. But a new World Bank study, conducted with AiSight.ai and the Information Technology University of the Punjab, goes a step further. Instead of just counting children, it maps exactly where they are and why they remain excluded.

Using satellite imagery and machine learning, researchers created a detailed, ground-level view of the country’s education system. This approach reveals something that traditional data could not: the problem is not just about numbers, but about location, access and inequality.

The study estimates that around 25 million children aged 5 to 16 are out of school. While this aligns with previous estimates, the new research shows how unevenly this problem is spread across the country.

A divided education system

Pakistan’s schooling system is split between public and private providers. Public schools are spread widely, including in remote areas. Private schools, however, are concentrated in cities and wealthier regions where families can afford fees.

The study identifies over 72,000 private schools, more than official records suggest. It also finds that nearly half of all enrolled students are now in private institutions. This shows how important private education has become.

But this growth has not been equal. In major cities like Karachi and Lahore, private schools dominate. In rural and poorer areas, they are scarce. This creates a system where a child’s chances of going to school depend heavily on where they live.

The problem of access, not just schools

One of the key insights from the study is that having schools is not enough. What matters is how easily children can reach them.

Researchers measured “accessibility” by looking at distance, population and school capacity. In many areas, especially rural regions, children still have to travel long distances to attend school. This is particularly difficult for girls and low-income families.

The study also introduces the idea of “whitespace”, areas where there are people but no nearby schools. These gaps are common in provinces like Balochistan and Sindh.

But the findings also reveal a surprising pattern. In cities, where schools are more available, many children are still out of school. This suggests that other factors, like poverty, social norms or the need to work, are preventing children from enrolling.

Private schools help, but not everywhere

Private schools do improve access in some areas. They increase the number of children who can reach a nearby school and reduce gaps in coverage.

However, their impact is uneven. They mostly operate in places that are already better served, such as urban and higher-income areas. In many cases, private schools are located close to public schools, competing for the same students instead of reaching new communities.

This means that while private schools are expanding, they are not solving the problem of exclusion in the poorest and most remote parts of the country.

Floods expose deeper vulnerabilities

The 2022 floods added another layer to the crisis. By combining satellite data and flood maps, the study estimates that over 20,000 public schools and around 4,000 private schools were affected.

About 3.5 million children had their education disrupted, much higher than earlier estimates. In badly hit areas, especially in Sindh, access to schools dropped sharply. Roads were damaged, buildings were destroyed, and entire communities were cut off.

The long-term effects are serious. A follow-up survey suggests that around 6 percent of affected children never returned to school. This highlights how disasters can push vulnerable families even further behind.

A smarter way forward

The study shows that better data can lead to better decisions. By using satellite technology and machine learning, policymakers can now see exactly where schools are needed and which communities are being left out.

But the message is clear: building more schools alone will not fix the problem. Many children remain out of school even when schools are nearby.

To truly address the crisis, Pakistan will need a broader approach, one that improves access, reduces costs for families and tackles social barriers to education. Only then can the country begin to close the gap for millions of children still waiting for a classroom.