Global Air Travel Falls in May as Middle East Conflict Hits Demand

IATA Director General Willie Walsh said the decline was largely driven by airlines in the Middle East, where passenger demand dropped 28.4% compared with a year earlier.

Global air passenger demand fell in May 2026 as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continued to disrupt travel, according to the latest data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Total passenger demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), declined by 2.2% compared with May 2025, while airline capacity dropped by 2.3%.

Despite the decline, airlines achieved a record May load factor of 83.5%, showing that flights remained highly occupied. When Middle Eastern carriers are excluded, global passenger demand actually increased by 0.7%, highlighting the resilience of the wider aviation market. International passenger demand slipped 1.6%, while domestic traffic fell 3.1%, reflecting weaker travel in several major markets.

Regional Markets Show Mixed Performance

IATA Director General Willie Walsh said the decline was largely driven by airlines in the Middle East, where passenger demand dropped 28.4% compared with a year earlier. Although the fall remained significant, it marked a clear improvement from the 46.6% decline recorded in April, suggesting that the region's aviation sector is gradually recovering from the immediate effects of the conflict.

Walsh also noted that North America and Asia recorded weaker passenger numbers, mainly because of softer domestic markets in the United States and China. At the same time, high fuel costs and elevated airfares continued to challenge airlines, even though recent declines in oil prices offer some hope for lower operating costs in the months ahead.

Among international markets, Latin American airlines posted the strongest growth with a 10.5% increase in passenger demand, followed by African carriers at 8.9%, European airlines at 3.8%, Asia-Pacific carriers at 1.3%, and North American airlines at 1.0%. Middle Eastern airlines remained the only region to experience a sharp decline. Europe also recorded a 15% increase in direct passenger traffic to Asia, reflecting growing demand for nonstop services between the two regions.

India Leads Domestic Growth Despite Global Slowdown

Domestic passenger traffic presented a mixed picture across major markets. China experienced the steepest decline, with demand falling 6.2%, which IATA said may be linked to higher airfares and the Dragon Boat Festival taking place in June this year instead of May. Domestic travel in the United States also declined by 1.9%.

India stood out as the strongest-performing domestic market, recording a 10.1% increase in passenger demand while airline capacity grew 7.9%. The country's domestic load factor reached 85.5%, one of the highest among major markets. Brazil and Japan also reported moderate domestic growth, while Australia's domestic market remained largely stable.

Although the global aviation industry continues to face uncertainty from geopolitical tensions and fuel price volatility, the record load factors achieved in May indicate that passenger demand remains relatively strong where market conditions have remained stable.