Can MENA Turn Hunger into Growth? World Bank Sees 5 Million Agrifood Jobs by 2050

The World Bank says MENAAP can significantly improve food security and create 5 million agrifood jobs by 2050 through smarter policies, private investment, and better water management, despite rising climate and conflict pressures. The report urges governments and development partners to shift from costly subsidies toward innovation, resilient agrifood systems, efficient trade, and sustainable infrastructure to ensure long-term food security and economic growth.

Food security has become one of the defining economic and development challenges for the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAAP), but it also presents one of the region's biggest opportunities for inclusive growth. The World Bank's latest report, Building Food Security, Creating Jobs: Policy Pathways for the Region, argues that ambitious reforms, stronger private-sector participation, smarter public spending, and sustained investment in water, technology, and agrifood systems can simultaneously reduce hunger, generate millions of jobs, and strengthen long-term economic resilience. Rather than viewing agriculture as a standalone sector, the report positions agrifood systems as a foundation for employment, trade competitiveness, climate adaptation, and sustainable development.

Food Security Is Becoming an Economic Priority

The report reveals that food insecurity has reached its highest level in decades across the region. Around 142 million people, or one in every six residents, experience food insecurity, while 82 million people face crisis-level hunger. The share of food-insecure people has increased from 12% in 2003-05 to 18% during 2023-25, making MENAAP the world's second-most food-insecure region.

Although conflict remains the largest driver of severe hunger, food affordability has emerged as a growing concern even in relatively stable economies. About 42% of the population cannot afford a healthy diet, with Pakistan and Egypt accounting for the largest number of affected people. The report also highlights a growing nutrition crisis. Nearly 62% of adults are overweight, while millions of children continue to suffer from stunting and poor dietary diversity. This combination of undernutrition and obesity reflects unhealthy diets dominated by refined cereals, sugars, oils, and processed foods, creating rising healthcare costs and reducing workforce productivity.

Food demand is projected to increase by 67% by 2050, driven by population growth and higher incomes. Without significant reforms, existing food systems will struggle to meet future demand while maintaining affordability and environmental sustainability.

Investment and Innovation Can Transform Agrifood Systems

The World Bank identifies agrifood systems as one of the region's strongest engines for economic growth. The sector already employs around 63 million people, representing nearly 30% of total employment. While traditional farming jobs are gradually declining, employment in food processing, logistics, transport, retail, storage, and hospitality is expanding rapidly.

According to the report's modelling, ambitious investment and policy reforms could generate the equivalent of 5 million additional agrifood jobs by 2050 while improving wages and productivity across the value chain.

One of the fastest opportunities lies in reducing food loss and waste. Nearly one-third of all food produced across the region is lost during harvesting, transportation, storage, processing, retailing, or household consumption. Better cold-chain infrastructure, warehouses, transport networks, and digital supply chains could significantly improve food availability while reducing government spending on imports and subsidies.

The report also recommends expanding investment in precision agriculture, climate-smart farming, improved seed varieties, digital technologies, irrigation efficiency, and agricultural research. It estimates that approximately US$12 billion in additional annual investment is needed to modernize irrigation systems, improve water management, strengthen agricultural innovation, and build climate resilience across the region.

Better Policies Can Deliver Stronger Growth and Food Security

The report argues that governments can achieve far better outcomes by shifting from short-term subsidies toward long-term productivity investments. Consumer food subsidies currently average around 1% of GDP, while agricultural spending averages just 0.4% of GDP in many countries. Although subsidies protect vulnerable households during food price shocks, they often encourage consumption of refined flour, sugars, and oils instead of healthier foods.

The World Bank recommends gradually replacing generalized subsidies with targeted digital food assistance, electronic vouchers, efficient public procurement, strategic grain reserves, climate-resilient infrastructure, agricultural innovation, and stronger social protection systems.

Trade also remains central to future food security. Imported food currently supplies 39% of regional calorie consumption, while food imports represent about 4% of regional GDP. Instead of pursuing complete food self-sufficiency, the report recommends diversifying import sources, strengthening logistics infrastructure, improving trade facilitation, and focusing domestic production on high-value crops where countries enjoy competitive advantages.

At the same time, water management has become an urgent policy priority. Agriculture consumes 87% of available freshwater, making MENAAP the world's most water-stressed region. Climate change, groundwater depletion, and worsening droughts threaten long-term agricultural productivity, requiring governments to strengthen water governance alongside investment in efficient irrigation technologies.

A Shared Agenda for Governments, Development Partners and Investors

The report provides a clear roadmap for policymakers by linking food security with economic development, employment, climate resilience, and fiscal sustainability. Governments are encouraged to improve the business environment, strengthen agricultural research, modernize infrastructure, expand digital services, promote innovation, and attract greater private investment throughout agrifood value chains.

For international development partners, the findings highlight opportunities to support climate adaptation, blended finance, institutional reforms, irrigation projects, conflict recovery, and capacity building. Coordinated investments in water security, agricultural innovation, digital infrastructure, and resilient supply chains can generate long-term development gains while reducing humanitarian pressures.

Private-sector stakeholders also stand to benefit from growing investment opportunities in agritech, food processing, cold-chain logistics, warehouse infrastructure, renewable-energy-powered irrigation, digital marketplaces, agricultural finance, crop insurance, and export-oriented agribusiness. However, investors will need to manage risks associated with political instability, climate change, water scarcity, and regulatory uncertainty.

The World Bank concludes that food security should no longer be treated solely as a humanitarian issue. Modern, efficient, and climate-resilient agrifood systems can become powerful drivers of economic growth, job creation, healthier populations, and regional stability. Countries that invest today in innovation, sustainable resource management, and private-sector-led development will be better positioned to meet rising food demand while building more competitive and resilient economies over the coming decades.