ASEAN's Risky Re-engagement with Myanmar: A Regional Dilemma

ASEAN's recent informal meeting with Myanmar's top diplomat may legitimize the military-led government, potentially weakening the group's peace efforts. Analysts warn that ASEAN risks losing leverage if it re-engages with Myanmar's military without implementing their Five-Point Consensus, which aims to end violence and promote political dialogue.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) faces a crucial test as it contemplates re-engagement with Myanmar's military-led government. The informal meeting held in Bangkok with Myanmar's top diplomat is seen as pivotal, with analysts cautioning that such engagement risks validating the junta's rule without ensuring meaningful changes.

ASEAN's Five-Point Consensus, established in April 2021, calls for an end to violence and inclusive dialogue. However, Myanmar's military regime has largely ignored the consensus, leading ASEAN to exclude it from top-level meetings. Critics argue that ASEAN's recent actions could undermine its own peace framework if re-engagement proceeds without concrete steps from Myanmar.

Death tolls are rising, and the country's economy is collapsing amid prolonged conflict. Yet the military-backed leaders seek regional legitimacy. As ASEAN considers its next move, the organization faces pressure to uphold its peace framework or risk losing influence over Myanmar, analysts say.