Early Monsoon: A Game Changer for India

The southwest monsoon is expected to reach Kerala on May 27, earlier than the usual date. If it occurs as predicted, it will be the earliest onset since 2009. This year, India is forecasted to receive above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season, soothing concerns over potential El Nino conditions.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that the southwest monsoon is likely to arrive in Kerala by May 27, earlier than its usual onset of June 1. If it materializes, this will mark the earliest monsoon onset over the Indian mainland since 2009, when it began on May 23.

Historically, the monsoon reaches Kerala by June 1 and covers the entire country by July 8, retreating from northwest India around September 17 and completely withdrawing by October 15. This year, the IMD forecasts above-normal cumulative rainfall, with no signs of El Nino, which typically results in below-normal rainfall.

M Ravichandran, secretary in the Earth Sciences Ministry, states that India is likely to experience above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season from June to September, with cumulative rainfall estimated at 105% of the long-period average of 87 cm, allowing a model error of 5%.