Predicting Oil Sector Calm as Global Geopolitical Tensions Ease by 2025

Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights forecasts a more stable oil market in 2025. Reduction in geopolitical strains and strategic energy trade discussions between India and the US are highlighted as key contributors. Expectations signal steady crude oil prices as increased supply meets demand in a calmer international context.

Vandana Hari, founder and CEO of Vanda Insights, anticipates a more tranquil year for the oil sector by 2025, aligning with Petroleum Minister Hardeep Puri's assertion that 'the Trump presidency is good news for oil.' Speaking at India Energy Week 2025, Hari provided insights into the geopolitical factors she believes will contribute to this stability.

Pointing to the Gaza and Ukraine wars as primary causes of past volatility in crude prices, Hari expressed hope for a cooling of these tensions. She speculates that the Trump presidency might help broker peace deals, particularly a potential agreement with Ukraine's President Zelensky.

Should peace in Ukraine materialize, Hari predicts a reduction in geopolitical risk, likely leading to adjusted crude oil prices. Despite OPEC restraints, she forecasts increased oil supply compared to demand growth. India, heavily reliant on imports, might see crude prices averaging USD 70-75 per barrel in 2025, below current rates.

(With inputs from agencies.)