AI Won't Replace Most Jobs in Turkey Yet, but Workforce Reform Cannot Wait: World Bank

The World Bank finds that while 41% of Turkey's workforce is employed in AI-exposed occupations, low AI adoption gives the country a crucial opportunity to prepare workers, businesses, and institutions before major labor market disruption occurs. The report urges policymakers, development partners, and the private sector to invest in AI skills, SME digital transformation, innovation, and workforce reskilling so that artificial intelligence becomes a driver of productivity, competitiveness, and inclusive economic growth.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as one of the biggest forces shaping the future of work, but Turkey is not yet facing a wave of job losses. Instead, a new World Bank report says the country is entering a transition period in which AI will gradually change how people work rather than eliminate jobs overnight. The report argues that Turkey still has time to prepare its workforce, businesses, and institutions before AI adoption becomes widespread. For policymakers, development partners, and businesses, this creates an opportunity to shape AI as a driver of productivity and economic growth instead of allowing it to widen existing inequalities.

AI Will Reshape Jobs, Not Replace Them Overnight

The report estimates that 41 percent of Turkey's workforce is employed in occupations highly exposed to AI. However, the findings show that the impact will not be the same for everyone. Around 22 percent of workers are employed in occupations where AI is more likely to replace routine tasks, while 19 percent work in jobs where AI is expected to support human work and improve productivity.

This means AI is more likely to automate repetitive administrative and information-processing tasks while allowing workers to focus on decision-making, creativity, communication, and problem-solving. Instead of eliminating occupations, AI is expected to change the mix of tasks within jobs.

Exposure also differs across industries. The information and communication sector has the highest AI exposure at 86 percent, while education stands out because 52 percent of jobs are considered highly complementary with AI, suggesting teachers are more likely to use AI as a support tool rather than be replaced. Manufacturing, construction, agriculture, and transportation remain less exposed because much of their work still depends on manual and location-specific tasks.

For governments, this highlights the need for sector-specific AI policies instead of a one-size-fits-all approach.

Women, Youth and Skilled Workers Face the Biggest Transition Risks

The report identifies several groups that require targeted policy attention. Women are more exposed to AI than men, with 47 percent of female workers employed in high-exposure occupations compared with 38 percent of men. Women are concentrated in both professional jobs that AI can enhance and clerical occupations where automation risks are higher.

Young people face another challenge. Around 26 percent of Turkish youth, and over 36 percent of young women, are not in education, employment or training (NEET). Many entry-level jobs involve routine documentation and administrative work that AI can increasingly perform. Although companies are not cutting jobs, some firms expect AI to reduce future demand for junior recruits by automating basic tasks.

The report also finds that around 45 percent of Turkish workers experience qualification mismatch, while 38 percent of overqualified workers are employed in occupations with higher AI substitution risks. These workers may face additional pressure unless they receive opportunities to upgrade their skills.

For policymakers, this underlines the importance of investing in digital education, vocational training, reskilling programs, and targeted support for women and young workers before AI adoption accelerates.

Low AI Adoption Gives Turkey a Valuable Policy Window

Despite high occupational exposure, Turkey has so far experienced very limited labor market disruption because AI adoption among businesses remains relatively low. Enterprise AI adoption increased from less than 3 percent in 2021 to 7.4 percent in 2025, but this remains well below OECD averages.

Adoption is also uneven. About 22 percent of large firms have adopted AI compared with only 4 percent of small firms, even though small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) account for nearly 85 percent of total employment. This explains why employment patterns have remained largely stable between 2016 and 2024 despite growing AI capabilities.

Interviews with companies show that AI is currently being used for predictive maintenance, fraud detection, quality control, logistics management, customer service, workplace safety, and document processing. Rather than replacing workers, businesses are reporting higher productivity, task reallocation, employee retraining, and selective hiring of digital specialists. However, companies continue to face barriers including high technology costs, limited AI skills, weak data infrastructure, regulatory uncertainty, and shortages of domestic AI solutions.

For the private sector, the report suggests that competitiveness will increasingly depend on investing in workforce skills and digital transformation rather than reducing staff.

Policy Action Can Turn AI into an Economic Growth Opportunity

The World Bank argues that Turkey's biggest challenge is not excessive automation but limited AI readiness. Only 0.36 percent of LinkedIn members in Turkey possess AI-related skills, compared with 1.09 percent in Germany and 0.94 percent in Poland. The country also experiences a net outflow of AI professionals, raising concerns about brain drain and future innovation capacity.

To address these challenges, the report recommends four priorities. First, expand AI adoption, particularly among SMEs, by reducing financial, technical, and regulatory barriers. Second, strengthen education, lifelong learning, and vocational training to equip workers with AI-related skills. Third, improve labor market adjustment through reskilling, career guidance, employment services, and targeted support for vulnerable groups such as women, youth, and overqualified workers. Finally, build a stronger domestic AI ecosystem by investing in research, university-industry collaboration, innovation, and talent retention.

For international development partners, the findings provide a roadmap for supporting digital infrastructure, SME modernization, workforce development, and innovation financing. For governments, the report highlights the importance of acting before AI adoption becomes widespread. For businesses, it reinforces that long-term success will depend on combining technology investments with workforce development.

Turkey still has a valuable opportunity to shape how AI transforms its economy. With timely policy reforms, stronger skills, and broader business adoption, artificial intelligence can become a powerful driver of productivity, competitiveness, and inclusive economic growth rather than a source of widening inequality.