China's Power Dilemma: Balancing Coal and Renewables

China's thermal power generation increased 1.5% in 2024, driven by heightened power demand. Despite forecasts for coal usage to decline, emissions rose as renewables lagged. Analysts cite energy-intensive industries and unusual weather patterns as factors. Hydropower faced setbacks due to a severe drought and rising temperatures.

In 2024, China's thermal power generation saw a 1.5% increase, challenging expectations of a peak in coal usage, as per official data. This trend underscores the complexities of phasing out coal-fired power while meeting the demands of energy-intensive industries and advancing China's electrification initiative.

Power sector emissions remain crucial in China's decarbonisation efforts amid Beijing's shift towards electrification, notably with electric vehicles. Last year, thermal power generation, primarily coal-fueled, reached 6.34 trillion kWh, rising from 2023, the National Bureau of Statistics reports.

Analysts highlight issues like high residential and service sector demand post-COVID-19 and a record warm year impacting hydropower. With renewables insufficient to fulfill demand, Greenpeace projects all new power demand may be met by renewables by 2025, paving the way for peak emissions.