South Africa Turns to Offshore Wind as 95 GW Potential Opens New Path for Green Industrial Growth

South Africa’s 95 GW offshore wind potential could strengthen energy security, create large-scale jobs, cut emissions and support new industries such as green hydrogen and domestic manufacturing. Realising the opportunity will require early investment in grid and port infrastructure, skills, environmental data and clear regulations, backed by public, concessional and private finance.

South Africa could turn offshore wind into a major source of clean electricity, jobs and industrial investment, but the opportunity will depend on decisions made well before the first turbines start producing power. A strategic framework developed by the World Bank Group with the Government of South Africa through the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP), alongside the International Finance Corporation (IFC), finds that the country has around 95 GW of indicative offshore wind potential.

The opportunity comes at an important time. South Africa experienced 335 days of load shedding in 2023, while long-term decarbonisation could require roughly 5–6 GW of new renewable energy capacity every year. Solar and onshore wind additions averaged only around 1 GW annually between 2013 and 2023, highlighting the scale of investment needed.

95 GW Offshore Opportunity Could Strengthen South Africa's Energy Security

South Africa's roughly 2,800-kilometre coastline has strong offshore wind conditions, with many promising locations recording wind speeds above 9 metres per second. Around 64 GW of indicative potential is located between Saldanha Bay and Port Nolloth.

The report examines three development pathways. Under the low-growth scenario, offshore wind reaches 500 MW by 2035, 1 GW by 2040 and 5 GW by 2050. The medium scenario reaches 1 GW, 5 GW and 15 GW respectively, while the high-growth pathway could deliver 1 GW by 2035, 8 GW by 2040 and 40 GW by 2050.

Because much of South Africa's seabed becomes deep relatively close to shore, floating offshore wind would become increasingly important. Under the high-growth scenario, about 37.3 GW of the 40 GW installed by 2050 would be floating wind.

For policymakers, the figures show why offshore wind should be considered within long-term electricity, industrial and infrastructure planning rather than treated simply as another renewable technology.

Jobs and Manufacturing Could Turn Clean Energy Into an Industrial Strategy

The economic benefits increase significantly if South Africa develops domestic manufacturing and service capabilities.

Under the high-growth pathway, offshore wind could eventually supply roughly 26% of national electricity demand and generate more than 300,000 full-time-equivalent job years between 2030 and 2050. The associated employment wage contribution could reach approximately US$6.7 billion.

The medium scenario, reaching 15 GW by 2050, could create more than 100,000 local direct FTE job years and approximately US$2.4 billion in employment wage contributions.

Around 55% of workforce requirements could involve lower-certification occupations such as factory workers, ship crews, civil workers and equipment operators. Opportunities would also emerge for engineers, technicians, logistics specialists, project managers and other professionals.

Manufacturing turbine towers and other components domestically could increase these benefits. Ports and Special Economic Zones could become centres for manufacturing, assembly, maintenance and maritime services. Offshore wind could also provide clean electricity for green hydrogen and energy-intensive industries, creating another potential source of investment and exports.

Grid, Ports and Regulation Will Decide Whether Projects Become Bankable

Large wind resources alone will not guarantee investment. Developers need confidence that projects can connect to the electricity system, obtain permits, access suitable ports and sell electricity under predictable commercial arrangements.

Grid infrastructure is one of the biggest challenges. Much of South Africa's electricity demand is concentrated in the northeast, while strong renewable resources are found in coastal and southwestern regions where transmission capacity is already constrained.

Ports will also require major investment, particularly for floating wind. Large assembly areas, heavy-load facilities, specialised vessels and maintenance infrastructure will be needed.

Government therefore needs to establish a clear offshore wind vision toward 2050, integrate offshore wind into national electricity planning and provide predictable rules for procurement, leasing, permitting and environmental approval.

Environmental risks also need early attention. Projects could affect fisheries, shipping, tourism, coastal communities, whales, birds, bats and marine ecosystems. Early consultation and better environmental information could reduce conflicts and costly delays.

Development Finance Can Help Unlock Private Investment and Reduce Early Risks

International development partners can play an important role without replacing private capital. Public and concessional finance could support LiDAR wind measurements, metocean studies, environmental assessments, grid planning, port preparation and workforce development.

Making reliable wind-resource and environmental information available to investors could lower early development costs and improve confidence in the market. Development institutions could also help structure financing mechanisms that attract private investment without creating excessive liabilities for taxpayers or electricity consumers.

Private-sector opportunities extend beyond wind developers. Manufacturers, engineering companies, construction businesses, maritime operators, ports, logistics companies, training providers and maintenance firms could all participate in the emerging supply chain. However, businesses will need a predictable pipeline of projects before committing significant capital to factories and specialised infrastructure.

The climate benefits are equally substantial. By 2050, cumulative emissions reductions could reach approximately 141.5 million tonnes of CO2 under the low scenario, 362.3 million tonnes under the medium scenario and 530.3 million tonnes under high growth.

The immediate priority is therefore to create the foundations for investment. South Africa needs stronger wind and environmental data, transmission planning, port strategies, workforce training, regulatory clarity and a credible long-term project pipeline. If these measures are implemented early, the country could position its first offshore wind projects for operation around 2035, while using the sector to advance energy security, industrial development, employment and the wider just energy transition.