2025 Oil Market: Forecasts, Challenges, and OPEC+ Strategies

The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a well-supplied oil market in 2025, despite prolonged OPEC+ supply cuts and increased demand forecasts. While China's shift towards electric vehicles weakens demand growth, the IEA anticipates a 1.1 million barrel per day increase, presenting challenges for OPEC+ as it considers reviving output.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced its projections for a well-supplied oil market in 2025, as OPEC+ grapples with extended supply cuts. Despite a slight uptick in global demand forecasts, notably in Asian countries, sustained economic shifts in China restrain potential consumption increases, challenging long-term strategies.

OPEC+ plans to further delay the revival of oil output due to modest demand growth and booming production in non-member nations like the United States and Brazil. This delay comes amid a 950,000 bpd supply surplus expected next year, according to the IEA, against a backdrop of fluctuating oil prices.

Forecast variations hinge on differing views about Chinese demand and the global shift to cleaner energy. While OPEC remains optimistic with higher numbers, it adjusted its expectations downward for future growth, echoing a cautious outlook shared by the IEA.

(With inputs from agencies.)