IMD Launches AI-Powered Hyperlocal Weather Forecasting System

One of the most significant announcements was the launch of India’s first AI-enabled operational monsoon advance forecasting system.

In a major technological leap for India's weather forecasting ecosystem, the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) on Tuesday launched two advanced artificial intelligence-powered weather forecasting systems aimed at delivering hyperlocal, impact-based and highly accurate weather services across the country.

The landmark initiative, unveiled by Union Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Science & Technology, Earth Sciences, and MoS PMO, Personnel, Public Grievances, Pensions, Atomic Energy and Space, Dr Jitendra Singh, represents a significant transformation in India's meteorological capabilities as the country confronts increasing climate volatility and extreme weather events.

The two next-generation forecasting products include:

• India Meteorological Department's (IMD) first-ever Artificial Intelligence-enabled "Forecast of Monsoon Advance over Different Parts of the Country"

• A High Spatial Resolution Rainfall Forecast for Uttar Pradesh capable of generating rainfall predictions at an unprecedented 1-kilometre spatial resolution up to 10 days in advance

The systems have been jointly developed by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

India's Weather Forecasting Enters AI Era

Calling the launch a "major shift" from conventional forecasting to intelligent decision-support systems, Dr. Jitendra Singh said India's weather forecasting infrastructure has undergone a dramatic transformation over the last decade through technology integration, high-performance computing, AI-driven modelling and expansion of observational networks.

"IMD today has become an integral component of governance, disaster preparedness, agriculture planning and everyday public decision-making," the Minister said while addressing scientists, officials and media representatives at Mahika Hall, Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi.

According to the Minister, the newly launched systems are designed to provide precise, actionable and location-specific weather intelligence capable of supporting:

• Farmers and agricultural planning

• Disaster management agencies

• Urban administrators

• Water resource authorities

• Renewable energy planning

• Infrastructure management

• Public safety operations

AI-Driven Monsoon Forecasting to Support Farmers Across 16 States

One of the most significant announcements was the launch of India's first AI-enabled operational monsoon advance forecasting system.

The system will provide probabilistic forecasts of monsoon progression every Wednesday up to four weeks in advance, offering unprecedented support for agricultural planning and preparedness.

Officials said the forecasting platform combines:

• AI-based forecasting models

• Extended range prediction systems

• Statistical weather techniques

• Numerical weather prediction frameworks

The service has been specifically designed to support farmers across 16 states and more than 3,000 sub-districts, with forecasts being disseminated through the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare's communication network.

Agriculture experts believe the technology could substantially improve decision-making around:

• Crop sowing schedules

• Irrigation planning

• Fertiliser application

• Pest and disease management

• Harvest timing

• Climate risk mitigation

At a time when erratic rainfall patterns, delayed monsoons and extreme weather variability are increasingly affecting agricultural productivity, the AI-based forecasting framework is expected to play a crucial role in strengthening climate-resilient farming.

Uttar Pradesh Pilot Introduces 1-Km Resolution Rainfall Forecasting

The second major launch—the High Spatial Resolution Rainfall Forecast for Uttar Pradesh—marks one of India's most advanced hyperlocal forecasting initiatives to date.

The pilot system can generate rainfall forecasts at an exceptionally granular 1-kilometre spatial resolution up to 10 days in advance, significantly enhancing forecasting precision at district and sub-district levels.

The platform uses advanced AI-driven downscaling techniques and integrates massive real-time datasets from:

• Automatic Rain Gauges (ARGs)

• Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs)

• Doppler Weather Radars

• Satellite rainfall datasets

Experts say this level of forecasting precision could dramatically improve localised flood warnings, urban drainage management and emergency response planning, especially in densely populated regions vulnerable to flash floods and severe rainfall events.

India Rapidly Expanding Weather Infrastructure Under Mission Mausam

Highlighting the rapid modernization of India's meteorological infrastructure, Dr. Jitendra Singh said India had only 16–17 Doppler Weather Radars around a decade ago, compared to nearly 50 operational radars today, with another 50 planned under Mission Mausam.

The Minister said the expansion of:

• Radar networks

• Automatic weather stations

• High-performance computing systems

• Digital communication platforms

• Observational infrastructure

has substantially strengthened India's forecasting capabilities and early warning systems.

Mission Mausam, one of the government's flagship weather modernisation programmes, is aimed at building a technologically advanced forecasting ecosystem capable of handling increasing climate risks and extreme weather events.

Forecast Accuracy Improves Sharply Amid Rising Climate Challenges

Dr. Jitendra Singh said India's forecasting capabilities have significantly improved over the past decade, particularly in predicting severe weather events.

According to the Minister:

• Forecast accuracy for severe weather events has improved by nearly 40 percent compared to the previous decade

• Cyclone track, intensity and landfall forecasts for 72-hour prediction windows have improved by 30–35 percent over the last five years

• Seasonal forecast errors have reduced substantially

India's meteorological advancements have received international recognition in recent years, especially for accurate cyclone prediction and disaster preparedness efforts that have helped reduce loss of life during major storms and extreme weather events.

AI Forecasting Seen as Critical for Climate-Resilient Governance

Dr. Jitendra Singh said changing climate patterns and increasing frequency of extreme weather incidents have made accurate and timely forecasting more critical than ever before.

Referring to recent erratic weather conditions across various regions, the Minister stressed that India now requires forecasting systems capable of supporting real-time administrative and public decision-making.

He said the government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has launched several transformative initiatives to modernise India's weather and climate services infrastructure, including:

• Mission Mausam

• Radar network expansion

• Observational system strengthening

• Data communication modernization

• High-performance computing enhancement

Multi-Platform Dissemination to Ensure Last-Mile Connectivity

The government is also expanding dissemination channels to ensure weather advisories and early warnings reach citizens quickly and effectively.

According to the Minister, advisories are now distributed through:

• Mobile applications

• SMS alerts

• WhatsApp services

• Kisan portals

• Television broadcasts

• Digital communication platforms

Officials emphasized that effective compliance with weather advisories by local administrations and stakeholders remains essential for minimizing damage during extreme weather situations.

Nationwide Expansion Planned

Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Dr. M. Ravichandran, said the newly launched forecasting systems were developed in response to increasing stakeholder demand for highly localized and operationally useful weather forecasts.

He stated that the Uttar Pradesh pilot demonstrates India's capability to operationalize 1-km resolution rainfall forecasting using dense observational networks and AI technologies, and similar services will gradually be expanded to other regions as infrastructure grows.

The Ministry believes the new forecasting systems represent a major step toward building a climate-resilient, digitally empowered and citizen-centric weather service ecosystem, where scientific advancements directly contribute to economic growth, disaster resilience and public welfare.