Global Trade Policy Activity Reaches New High in 2026

The index tracks monthly policy changes across a large range of economies and products, using information from the WTO’s Trade Monitoring Database and Global Trade Alert.

Global trade policy activity has climbed to its highest level since records began after the Global Financial Crisis, with governments making far more changes to trade rules as tensions between major economies deepen and supply chains face renewed pressure.

A new Trade Policy Activity Index, developed by economists at the World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund, shows that activity accelerated through 2025 and continued rising during the first months of 2026. From January to May this year, global trade policy activity was almost twice the level seen in 2024 and roughly 25% higher than the 2025 average.

Trade Rules Are Changing More Frequently

The index tracks monthly policy changes across a large range of economies and products, using information from the WTO's Trade Monitoring Database and Global Trade Alert. It captures measures taken by governments rather than simply measuring uncertainty around trade policy.

Its findings point to a growing use of trade measures for purposes beyond traditional market access, including industrial development, economic security and strategic competition. The rise has not been confined to the largest economies, with the sharp increase in 2025 spreading more widely across the global trading system.

Restrictive Measures Gain Ground

Measures that make trade easier, such as lower barriers or improved customs procedures, have lost momentum compared with other trade actions in recent years. Restrictive and non-facilitating measures have become more prominent as trade policy tensions have intensified.

One exception came during the Strait of Hormuz crisis, when trade-facilitating measures made up more than two-thirds of all recorded actions. Governments appeared to focus on keeping goods moving during a period of heightened disruption risk.

The broader trend still shows a shift towards a more active and contested trade environment, where policy decisions can quickly affect the cost, route and reliability of international commerce.

A Pattern Shaped by Global Shocks

Trade policy activity had been rising gradually for more than a decade before speeding up around 2020. The index identifies clear spikes during the escalation of US-China tariff tensions in 2018 and 2019, the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the war in Ukraine in 2022 and renewed trade disputes in 2025.

The latest rise suggests that governments are relying on trade policy more often as they respond to economic risks, geopolitical competition and changing supply chain priorities. For businesses and consumers, these shifts can influence investment decisions, import costs and the availability of key products.